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Historical roots of diverse authoritarianisms

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China’s millennial centralised state; Donald Trump, America’s evil incubus

by Kumar David

The resilience of authoritarianism occupies much of political discourse today. Discussion spreads from Trump’s debasement of American electoral democracy, to Modi’s barefaced Hindutva intolerance, to a spate of dictators, most recently Belarus’s dictator-incumbent for life Lukashenko. The growing list is thrown into bold relief by the backdrop of Trump, Modi, Putin and Brazil’s Balsonaro. Despite common features every case is different and specifics are as enlightening as generalities. Today’s column features Chinese history, Lanka, and US developments. I will dwell on the strong centralised state across dynasties in China and the continuity of this into the Communist present. I have benefitted from the first three chapters of Lee Kwan Yew’s One Man’s View of the World, Strait Times Press, Singapore (2013). At times I have accepted and at times rejected his insights but it is not possible within the confines of this column to point out which is which. I urge readers to read the book because LKY’s grasp of the ‘big-picture’ is unequalled among post-WW2 leaders.

This quote, edited a little for length, gives LKY’s approach to the history of China. “For millennia the Chinese have believed that the country is safe only when the centre is strong. A weak centre leads to confusion and chaos, a strong one to peace and prosperity. Every Chinese knows this cardinal principle drawn from history and there will be no deviation from this. This mindset predates communism”. From this premise LKY concludes that a strong centralised state (called authoritarianism in modern discourse) is endemic to Chinese civilisation and psyche. He sees Western style democracy as unlikely to take root and expects the one-party PRC system to last for long. Participatory government may evolve sui generis but “China will evolve its institutions and systems in a distinctly Chinese way. Whatever their reforms one thing will not change; it will retain a strong centre”.

Let me pick two graphs from Ray Dalio’s chapter 9 of an online series “The Changing World Order” (https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/). The graphs (not copyrighted) measure dynastic power in China. Fig.1 is “relative”, that is progress through time. Numerals 1 to 6 stand for stages in evolution. Stage 1 is the beginning of a new order, stage 2 consolidation, 3 is peace, prosperity and the dynasty forging ahead, followed by 4, profligacy, overreach in resource use and spending. Stage 5 is when the economy enters a tailspin and internal conflict begins. Finally stage 6 denotes civil strife and collapse. Every civilisation has its peculiarities and no two can be expected to replicate each other but in a rough way we can say that the USA today is between stages 4 and 5. I have referred to Trumpism as proto neo-fascism many times before. Well we can drop proto now; armed Trump instigated neo-fascists have starred attacking the homes of electoral officials.

 

Fig. 1 Progression of dynastic power in China

The more interesting illustration is Fig.2 which is an “absolute” scale relating the dynasties to global power. A word about the scales; in both graphs, presentation begins with the Tang Dynasty (618 to 900AD) called the Golden Age, well after the earliest dynasties and does not include Confucius (551-479 BC). RC stands for Republic of China after Sun Yat-sen’s 1911 democratic revolution which ended Dynastic rule. What is relevant to my discussion of Chinese authoritarianism are the peaks and troughs. The vertical scale is all-time rank. I presume that 1.0, the all-time max, would be the British Empire or US Imperialism at their global zenith. The USA, if sketched into the graph, would be at 1.0 from the end of WW2 to the mid-1970s, then it would slide down, with a pip-up from 1989 for five years after the end of Soviet and East European communism, and then resume its decline, ranking between 0.8 and 0.9 today.

 

Fig 2

underlines LKY’s point. The end of the Tang Dynasty due to war-lord uprisings and peasant revolts, wrecked the centralised state leading to a chaotic Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms period. The calamity caused suffering, sorrow and hunger until, out of this chaos, Song Emperors fused a new dynasty half a century later. Yuan, the rule of the Mongols, began with Marco Polo’s fabled Great Khan, Kublai, grandson of legendary Genghis. Despite the achievements of the Mongols, Dalio rates it as bad because it was a foreign occupation and Kublai’s military exploits caused big losses of life and wealth. The downfall of the Qing (Manchurian) Dynasty is in part due to a weakening of the centre from about 1830, but also due to foreign (Western) invasions;

the Opium Wars (1839-42 and 1856-60) humbled China. This storyline underlines why hopes of prosperity and fear of chaos drive the desire for a strong centralised state. In conversations with Chinese in Hong Kong and the Mainland, I know of no one of any political hue, who wishes to see a weaker less cohesive China.

 

Fig.2 Power of Dynasties measured globally

Only fools extend the experiences of history to countries or periods to which they have no relevance. My aim is to illustrate the difference of China’s dynastic story from Lanka. From the end of the Polonnaruwa period, about 1300AD, our history is incomparably different – that is a difference spanning 700 years. From middle-late Anuradhapura period, through Chola rule and in the Polonnaruwa era there were similarities; a hydraulic civilisation, though on a far smaller scale – a quarter of Lanka’s landmass – and the similarity of a centralised sate. Colonisation changed it all, and Lanka after independence is a diametrically opposite political milieu from before. Our ethos of the last half-century has been liberal democracy. JR’s brief Bonapartism and Gotabaya’s effort to impose authoritarian rule are deviations within the big picture. The former failed, the latter will fall flat when the masses now toadying to racist and religious muck awake. Gota’s cack-handed attempt to dismantle the Public Utilities Commission and his Health Minister’s highhanded sacking of Medical Council members, undoubtedly in consultation with him, have caused outrage. He is now on the backfoot, attempting to force resignation of PUC members because he has no power to abolish it and his attempt is anti-democratic. I have had plenty of differences with PUC decisions but attempts to abolish it unconstitutionally and anti-democratically must be resisted. Gota’s authoritarianism is coming a cropper; the masses may be asses but past practice is missing

Given 70 years of liberal democracy, comparison with the time-honoured central state in China makes Gota’s authoritarian exertions seem like farting against thunder. Apples don’t flourish in ground prepared for oranges. Nonetheless it is not a cockeyed President throwing his weight around but livelihood issues that will finally agitate the masses. China’s economy is doing well and more than six hundred million have been pulled out of poverty. People see no reason to upset the applecart and endanger prosperity. China’s authoritarians and bureaucrats (Communist Mandarins) are smart, but Gota has surrounded himself with jackboots and blockheads. The outlook for Sri Lanka is grim. It’s very different tunnels that the two are peering into. The authoritarian cock won’t fight in this corner.

What could falsify my projections is a massive and catastrophic annulment of secularism and democracy in India if Hindutva fascism overruns the country. The chips are down, the gloves are off, the Modi-Amit Shah faction of the BJP and a cow-belt religious-opium besotted, Muslim-hating, secularism-spurning populist mass is mobilising. Unification and organisation of opposition to Hindutva neo-fascism is nowhere near what is needed. Therefore, external circumstances that could facilitate authoritarianism in Sri Lanka cannot be ruled out.

I have argued previously that “Trump is the last warning” meaning Trumpism augurs neo-fascism. He is an incubus who, with his Republi-can’t toadies (the party majority) and goons reminiscent of Hitler’s Brown Shirts (Sturmabteilung or Stormtroopers), is trashing electoral institutions, seeking to subvert polls and subjecting the country to an unending stream of Gobblesian lies. Is my last warning too late, is a fight to the finish already upon America? Yes and no. The final fight in on for sure; but a majority of people and constitutional institutions are probably strong enough to throw back the challenge. If the results of a bourgeois democratic presidential election are overthrown in America it would be mana from heaven for authoritarians and authoritarians-in-waiting in all continents. Institutions and courts have been resilient so far and stood up to the wrecking-ball, but damage is being done. Though the US seems to have weathered the storm so far, the bigger setback is not Trump who can be written off as bonkers, but tens of millions of Republi-can’ts who live in an alternative universe. They damn the very ideals they deem precious in the land of the brave and the home of the free. It is not Chinese dynasties but the grip of the incubus, tightening on the American throat and serving as an example to copycats elsewhere, in societies pledged to bourgeois-democracy and a liberal ethos, that is the peril.

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Islamophobia and the threat to democratic development

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There’s an ill more dangerous and pervasive than the Coronavirus that’s currently sweeping Sri Lanka. That is the fear to express one’s convictions. Across the public sector of the country in particular many persons holding high office are stringently regulating and controlling the voices of their consciences and this bodes ill for all and the country.

The corrupting impact of fear was discussed in this column a couple of weeks ago when dealing with the military coup in Myanmar. It stands to the enduring credit of ousted Myanmarese Head of Government Aung San Suu Kyi that she, perhaps for the first time in the history of modern political thought, singled out fear, and not power, as the principal cause of corruption within the individual; powerful or otherwise.

To be sure, power corrupts but the corrupting impact of fear is graver and more devastating. For instance, the fear in a person holding ministerial office or in a senior public sector official, that he would lose position and power as a result of speaking out his convictions and sincere beliefs on matters of the first importance, would lead to a country’s ills going unaddressed and uncorrected.

Besides, the individual concerned would be devaluing himself in the eyes of all irrevocably and revealing himself to be a person who would be willing to compromise his moral integrity for petty worldly gain or a ‘mess of pottage’. This happens all the while in Lankan public life. Some of those who have wielded and are wielding immense power in Sri Lanka leave very much to be desired from these standards.

It could be said that fear has prevented Sri Lanka from growing in every vital respect over the decades and has earned for itself the notoriety of being a directionless country.

All these ills and more are contained in the current controversy in Sri Lanka over the disposal of the bodies of Covid victims, for example. The Sri Lankan polity has no choice but to abide by scientific advice on this question. Since authorities of the standing of even the WHO have declared that the burial of the bodies of those dying of Covid could not prove to be injurious to the wider public, the Sri Lankan health authorities could go ahead and sanction the burying of the bodies concerned. What’s preventing the local authorities from taking this course since they claim to be on the side of science? Who or what are they fearing? This is the issue that’s crying out to be probed and answered.

Considering the need for absolute truthfulness and honesty on the part of all relevant persons and quarters in matters such as these, the latter have no choice but to resign from their positions if they are prevented from following the dictates of their consciences. If they are firmly convinced that burials could bring no harm, they are obliged to take up the position that burials should be allowed.

If any ‘higher authority’ is preventing them from allowing burials, our ministers and officials are conscience-bound to renounce their positions in protest, rather than behave compromisingly and engage in ‘double think’ and ‘double talk’. By adopting the latter course they are helping none but keeping the country in a state of chronic uncertainty, which is a handy recipe for social instabiliy and division.

In the Sri Lankan context, the failure on the part of the quarters that matter to follow scientific advice on the burials question could result in the aggravation of Islamophobia, or hatred of the practitioners of Islam, in the country. Sri Lanka could do without this latter phobia and hatred on account of its implications for national stability and development. The 30 year war against separatist forces was all about the prevention by military means of ‘nation-breaking’. The disastrous results for Sri Lanka from this war are continuing to weigh it down and are part of the international offensive against Sri Lanka in the UNHCR.

However, Islamophobia is an almost world wide phenomenon. It was greatly strengthened during Donald Trump’s presidential tenure in the US. While in office Trump resorted to the divisive ruling strategy of quite a few populist authoritarian rulers of the South. Essentially, the manoeuvre is to divide and rule by pandering to the racial prejudices of majority communities.

It has happened continually in Sri Lanka. In the initial post-independence years and for several decades after, it was a case of some populist politicians of the South whipping-up anti-Tamil sentiments. Some Tamil politicians did likewise in respect of the majority community. No doubt, both such quarters have done Sri Lanka immeasurable harm. By failing to follow scientific advice on the burial question and by not doing what is right, Sri Lanka’s current authorities are opening themselves to the charge that they are pandering to religious extremists among the majority community.

The murderous, destructive course of action adopted by some extremist sections among Muslim communities world wide, including of course Sri Lanka, has not earned the condemnation it deserves from moderate Muslims who make-up the preponderant majority in the Muslim community. It is up to moderate opinion in the latter collectivity to come out more strongly and persuasively against religious extremists in their midst. It will prove to have a cementing and unifying impact among communities.

It is not sufficiently appreciated by governments in the global South in particular that by voicing for religious and racial unity and by working consistently towards it, they would be strengthening democratic development, which is an essential condition for a country’s growth in all senses.

A ‘divided house’ is doomed to fall; this is the lesson of history. ‘National security’ cannot be had without human security and peaceful living among communities is central to the latter. There cannot be any ‘double talk’ or ‘politically correct’ opinions on this question. Truth and falsehood are the only valid categories of thought and speech.

Those in authority everywhere claiming to be democratic need to adopt a scientific outlook on this issue as well. Studies conducted on plural societies in South Asia, for example, reveal that the promotion of friendly, cordial ties among communities invariably brings about healing among estranged groups and produces social peace. This is the truth that is waiting to be acted upon.

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Pakistan’s love of Sri Lanka

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By Sanjeewa Jayaweera

It was on 3rd January 1972 that our family arrived in Karachi from Moscow. Our departure from Moscow had been delayed for a few weeks due to the military confrontation between Pakistan and India. It ended on 16th December 1971. After that, international flights were not permitted for some time.

The contrast between Moscow and Karachi was unbelievable. First and foremost, Moscow’s temperature was near minus 40 degrees centigrade, while in Karachi, it was sunny and a warm 28 degrees centigrade. However, what struck us most was the extreme warmth with which the airport authorities greeted our family. As my father was a diplomat, we were quickly ushered to the airport’s VIP Lounge. We were in transit on our way to Rawalpindi, the airport serving the capital of Islamabad.

We quickly realized that the word “we are from Sri Lanka” opened all doors just as saying “open sesame” gained entry to Aladdin’s cave! The broad smile, extreme courtesy, and genuine warmth we received from the Pakistani people were unbelievable.

This was all to do with Mrs Sirima Bandaranaike’s decision to allow Pakistani aircraft to land in Colombo to refuel on the way to Dhaka in East Pakistan during the military confrontation between Pakistan and India. It was a brave decision by Mrs Bandaranaike (Mrs B), and the successive governments and Sri Lanka people are still enjoying the fruits of it. Pakistan has been a steadfast and loyal supporter of our country. They have come to our assistance time and again in times of great need when many have turned their back on us. They have indeed been an “all-weather” friend of our country.

Getting back to 1972, I was an early beneficiary of Pakistani people’s love for Sri Lankans. I failed the entrance exam to gain entry to the only English medium school in Islamabad! However, when I met the Principal, along with my father, he said, “Sanjeewa, although you failed the entrance exam, I will this time make an exception as Sri Lankans are our dear friends.” After that, the joke around the family dinner table was that I owed my education in Pakistan to Mrs B!

At school, my brother and I were extended a warm welcome and always greeted “our good friends from Sri Lanka.” I felt when playing cricket for our college; our runs were cheered more loudly than of others.

One particular incident that I remember well was when the Embassy received a telex from the Foreign inistry. It requested that our High Commissioner seek an immediate meeting with the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr Zulifikar Ali Bhutto (ZB), and convey a message from Mrs B. The message requested that an urgent shipment of rice be dispatched to Sri Lanka as there would be an imminent rice shortage. As the Ambassador was not in the station, the responsibility devolved on my father.

It usually takes about a week or more to get an audience with the Prime Minister (PM) of a foreign country due to their busy schedule. However, given the urgency, my father spoke to the Foreign Ministry’s Permanent Sectary, who fortunately was our neighbour and sought an urgent appointment. My father received a call from the PM’s secretary around 10 P.M asking him to come over to the PM’s residence. My father met ZB around midnight. ZB was about to retire to bed and, as such, was in his pyjamas and gown enjoying a cigar! He had greeted my father and had asked, “Mr Jayaweera, what can we do for great friend Madam Bandaranaike?. My father conveyed the message from Colombo and quietly mentioned that there would be riots in the country if there is no rice!

ZB had immediately got the Food Commissioner of Pakistan on the line and said, “I want a shipload of rice to be in Colombo within the next 72 hours!” The Food Commissioner reverted within a few minutes, saying that nothing was available and the last export shipment had left the port only a few hours ago to another country. ZB had instructed to turn the ship around and send it to Colombo. This despite protests from the Food Commissioner about terms and conditions of the Letter of Credit prohibiting non-delivery. Sri Lanka got its delivery of rice!

The next was the visit of Mrs B to Pakistan. On arrival in Rawalpindi airport, she was given a hero’s welcome, which Pakistan had previously only offered to President Gaddafi of Libya, who financially backed Pakistan with his oil money. That day, I missed school and accompanied my parents to the airport. On our way, we witnessed thousands of people had gathered by the roadside to welcome Mrs B.

When we walked to the airport’s tarmac, thousands of people were standing in temporary stands waving Sri Lanka and Pakistan flags and chanting “Sri Lanka Pakistan Zindabad.” The noise emanating from the crowd was as loud and passionate as the cheering that the Pakistani cricket team received during a test match. It was electric!

I believe she was only the second head of state given the privilege of addressing both assemblies of Parliament. The other being Gaddafi. There was genuine affection from Mrs B amongst the people of Pakistan.

I always remember the indefatigable efforts of Mr Abdul Haffez Kardar, a cabinet minister and the President of the Pakistan Cricket Board. From around 1973 onwards, he passionately championed Sri Lanka’s cause to be admitted as a full member of the International Cricket Council (ICC) and granted test status. Every year, he would propose at the ICC’s annual meeting, but England and Australia’s veto kept us out until 1981.

I always felt that our Cricket Board made a mistake by not inviting Pakistan to play our inaugural test match. We should have appreciated Mr Kardar and Pakistan’s efforts. In 1974 the Pakistan board invited our team for a tour involving three test matches and a few first-class games. Most of those who played in our first test match was part of that tour, and no doubt gained significant exposure playing against a highly talented Pakistani team.

Several Pakistani greats were part of the Pakistan and India team that played a match soon after the Central Bank bomb in Colombo to prove that it was safe to play cricket in Colombo. It was a magnificent gesture by both Pakistan and India. Our greatest cricket triumph was in Pakistan when we won the World Cup in 1996. I am sure the players and those who watched the match on TV will remember the passionate support our team received that night from the Pakistani crowd. It was like playing at home!

I also recall reading about how the Pakistani government air freighted several Multi Barrell artillery guns and ammunition to Sri Lanka when the A rmy camp in Jaffna was under severe threat from the LTTE. This was even more important than the shipload of rice that ZB sent. This was crucial as most other countries refused to sell arms to our country during the war.

Time and again, Pakistan has steadfastly supported our country’s cause at the UNHCR. No doubt this year, too, their diplomats will work tirelessly to assist our country.

We extend a warm welcome to Mr Imran Khan, the Prime Minister of Pakistan. He is a truly inspirational individual who was undoubtedly an excellent cricketer. Since retirement from cricket, he has decided to get involved in politics, and after several years of patiently building up his support base, he won the last parliamentary elections. I hope that just as much as he galvanized Sri Lankan cricketers, his political journey would act as a catalyst for people like Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene to get involved in politics. Cricket has been called a “gentleman’s game.” Whilst politics is far from it!.

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Covid-19 health rules disregarded at entertainment venues?

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Believe me, seeing certain videos, on social media, depicting action, on the dance floor, at some of these entertainment venues, got me wondering whether this Coronavirus pandemic is REAL!

To those having a good time, at these particular venues, and, I guess, the management, as well, what the world is experiencing now doesn’t seem to be their concerned.

Obviously, such irresponsible behaviour could create more problems for those who are battling to halt the spread of Covid-19, and the new viriant of Covid, in our part of the world.

The videos, on display, on social media, show certain venues, packed to capacity – with hardly anyone wearing a mask, and social distancing…only a dream..

How can one think of social distancing while gyrating, on a dance floor, that is over crowded!

If this trend continues, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Coronavirus makes its presence felt…at such venues.

And, then, what happens to the entertainment scene, and those involved in this field, especially the musicians? No work, whatsoever!

Lots of countries have closed nightclubs, and venues, where people gather, in order to curtail the spread of this deadly virus that has already claimed the lives of thousands.

Thailand did it and the country is still having lots of restrictions, where entertainment is concerned, and that is probably the reason why Thailand has been able to control the spread of the Coronavirus.

With a population of over 69 million, they have had (so far), a little over 25,000 cases, and 83 deaths, while we, with a population of around 21 million, have over 80,000 cases, and more than 450 deaths.

I’m not saying we should do away with entertainment – totally – but we need to follow a format, connected with the ‘new normal,’ where masks and social distancing are mandatory requirements at these venues. And, dancing, I believe, should be banned, at least temporarily, as one can’t maintain the required social distance, while on the dance floor, especially after drinks.

Police spokesman DIG Ajith Rohana keeps emphasising, on TV, radio, and in the newspapers, the need to adhere to the health regulations, now in force, and that those who fail to do so would be penalised.

He has also stated that plainclothes officers would move around to apprehend such offenders.

Perhaps, he should instruct his officers to pay surprise visits to some of these entertainment venues.

He would certainly have more than a bus load of offenders to be whisked off for PCR/Rapid Antigen tests!

I need to quote what Dr. H.T. Wickremasinghe said in his article, published in The Island of Tuesday, February 16th, 2021:

“…let me conclude, while emphasising the need to continue our general public health measures, such as wearing masks, social distancing, and avoiding crowded gatherings, to reduce the risk of contact with an infected person.

“There is no science to beat common sense.”

But…do some of our folks have this thing called COMMON SENSE!

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