Features
Devoid of preconceptions and bias for and against
A Fresh Look at Solar Energy:
By Eng Parakrama Jayasinghe
Parajaysinghe@gmail.com
The earth receives enough solar energy in one hour, adequate to meet the entire energy needs of the world for a year. In this equation Sri Lanka is placed in a most advantageous position being a tropical island with over 200 days of sunshine annually anywhere . Also the intensity of solar radiation as estimated by the NREL and published in the documents of the Sustainable Energy Authority show that the Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) is over 1700 kWh/m2 over most of the country, except for some small segment of the hill country. The best areas can boast of over 1750 kWh/m2/year. This relates to a solar PV potential up to 1637 kWh/kWp in the best locations. ( See www.energy.gov.lk) Those who have opted to install roof top solar PV, including me, which are not necessarily the optimal orientation can safely expect the generation to be 110 kWh/kW/month averaged over the year including the cloudy and rainy days.
So Sri Lanka is very well endowed with this bounty of nature!
But with all this energy year round why is solar energy is not being pursued diligently in Sri Lanka?
Even with the projected demand of 30,890 GWh in 2030, the area required, if we want to get this entire energy form the sun is only 390 square kilometers. Which is only 0.60 % of the total land area of the country. The DG of the SLSEA Dr. Asanka Rodrigo has calculated that this area amounts to only 10 % of the scrub lands, reported as 1.6 million ha by the Ministry of lands. But then no one is planning to get all our electricity from solar PV. The current annual electricity demand is 18542 GWH. Suppose we target a contribution of say 25% of this demand, the area requirement of only 53.5 square kilometers or 5350 ha.( Ref Draft LTEGP 2020-2039) Does not sound too daunting does it?
But the inescapable reality is that sun shines only during the day even if we are lucky to get 12 hours of it, the solar insolation varied during the sunshine hours. And there are cloudy days and even a passing cloud would reduce the intensity of energy received.
It is this none firm nature and the diurnal availability which has been the main disadvantage and the barrier for wider exploitation of this unenviable natural resource. Also the cost of solar PV was found prohibitive even 5-10 years ago.
Winds ( Solar?) of Change
But all that is in the past. Now solar energy is the cheapest source for power generation except perhaps wind power and major hydro. Solutions have been found to overcome the problem variability and diurnal nature, in many countries.
This is done in two ways, first by accepting the reality of variable nature and system of forecasting the weather patterns and also taking advantage of the wide distribution of the solar systems, particularly the roof top installations. Thus taken as a combined system and not as single installations, present a less formidable picture. Of course the utilities must be clever enough to factor in this diversity.
On the other hand the use of storage devices, particularly storage batteries has solved this problem entirely. The 100 MW battery installed by Tesla in Hornsdale south Australia initiated a revolution. Now other utilities are vying with each other to install larger and larger. That is of course except for Sri Lanka which opts to remain in the last century when it comes to the electricity sector.
But we in Sri Lanka has the largest battery already installed in the shape of major Hydro reservoirs supporting 1399 MW of power generation capacity. All we lack is the courage and are too backwards in our thinking to recognize this asset and its immense value in conjunction with the literally unlimited solar potential and also coupled with the wind resource.
So it is time to consider and how we can use this bounty to the maximum, and not looking for reasons why it cannot be done, when it is already proven it to be technically and commercially feasible.
So let us look at the often stated problems.
Lack of Adequate Land
As already shown we need only 0.6 % of the land area even if we depend 100% on solar in 2030. But a more pragmatic vison indicated that we need only 0.33 % of the land for us to elevate the contribution up to 25% by 2030. But even this extent of lands, need not be targeted as there are other options. What should be our target for 2030, if we are to strive to achieve the President’s goal of 80% RE by 2030? As a viable and eminently achievable target I suggest 5000 MW, which would yield 8760 GWH per year or 28% of the total energy demand of 30890 GWH. How much of this can come from solar roof tops? An estimate of 3000 MW has been suggested as shown below.
Total Number of bill paying consumers 6,350,000 ( CEB own statistics 2018)
Assume 20% would opt for roof top solar 1,250,000 consumers
Tottal Solar Capacity @ 3 kW 3,750 MW
So the land requirement is only for the balance 2000 MW of solar parks or only 109 Sq Km or 10900 ha.
The thousands of reservoirs and lagoons would eminently serve our space requirement for the solar parks, with the added advantage of improved conversion efficiency on one hand, and the reduction of evaporation loss of the reservoir water on the other.
Sri Lanka has 62500 ha of reservoir area and 161,500 ha of lagoons dotted all over the country. So even a significant proportion of the area required, can be considered to come from these water bodies making this question of land availability a storm in a tea cup.
How do we handle variability?
The first option is to live with it however, idiotic that may sound. So as mentioned earlier with adequate number of installations there is a certain fraction of firm power that would be available but of course during the sun shine hours. The engineers at CEB must work out how to handle this to the best advantage, which of course needs thinking big and planning big to consider a little more than the area covered by a distribution transformer. But also we have the advantage of 1340 MW of hydro power which could be kept entirely away from the grid during day time, as well as shutting down the diesel guzzlers for good. In case someone asks the question, recently South Australia managed the entire day time hours with only solar energy as shown below.
Is there any technical reason why we in Sri Lanka cannot do the same thing, perhaps with a battery/batteries only of adequate capacity to iron out the dips to be expected during the day and to manage the night peak as shown below. That’s the challenge we must accept.
Where are we now?
It is not all gloom and doom. Over the past few years many things have been moving forward albeit much too slowly for our liking. We have now over 250 MW of grid connected Solar PV roof top installations by about 25,000 consumers and the number is rising. Added to that are over 50 MW of solar parks already connected and hopefully, at least some out of the 300 MW of 1 MW scale solar parks already tendered for should get built.
Sri Lanka can be proud of being most innovative and progressive by the introduction of the net metering system further improved by the three systems under the Surya Bala Sangraamaya. This is the most important shift in policy which led to the exponential growth in the solar PV roof top , which brought in its wake, many more spin off benefits, too many to list here. Therefore Sri Lanka should salute those who had the courage to bring in this legislation, whoever wishes to take credit for it. It is the responsibility of those claiming parentage of this innovation to ensure it is not allowed to be sabotaged as unfortunately some people are trying , including those in authority who fail to appreciate its value and immense potential. It is sad to see propaganda based on entirely incorrect numbers perhaps purposely designed to deceive, being used in this disruptive campaigns.
What does the immediate future offer us?
If the present format of the Surya Bala Sangraamaya is allowed to continue as it should, including the tariff structure , a most ambitious and visionary program has been proposed by the State Minister to install 100,000 rooftop solar PV systems targeting the Samurdhi Recipients. The capacity of each is estimated to be about 5-6 kW under the Net Plus scheme. Leveraging on the ADB funded loan scheme and an attractive low interest rate of 4%, this project can be entirely funded by the loan scheme and has the greatest advantage of the loan installment payments being made from the monthly income of exporting the generated energy to the national grid. It is also expected that the consumer will have a surplus in excess of the normal Samurdhi payment he would have otherwise received from the government, which will now not be forthcoming. Once the loan is paid up the consumer will receive a very substantial monthly income way above the Rs 2,500, he would otherwise have received, and would also have the satisfaction of being a contributor to the national energy mix thus joining the growing band of ” Prosumers”
This is indeed a win-win opportunity where by the country will gain at least 500 MW addition to the grid, without any capital expenditure by the treasury and an added saving of Rs 3000 Million every year by offsetting the 100,000 Samurdhi payments. The CEB too will make a saving by the avoidance of equivalent amount of expensive oil based power generation. We only hope that the CEB will proactively work towards ensuring the success of this project without trotting out the usual slogans.
The most tantalizing target is the 1.4 Million Samurdhi recipients who can be up lifted from eternal poverty at no cost to the government.
The State Ministers programme deserves the proactive support of all concerned by removing any road blocks that could appear in implementing this courageous by daunting project.
The CEB must be congratulated for launching a similar innovative project in parallel to clear the way for local investors to implement 10,000 mini solar parks, targeting the 100 kW distribution transformers dotted round the country. A recent Cabinet decision has already approved the project with the identified 7000 transformers that could be used for this scheme. Thus the possibility of adding a further 1000 MW of Solar power to the grid is already on the cards with the blessing of the CEB who are best placed to ensure its success.
Therefore if the above two schemes are implemented, not deterred by any minor glitches which should be addressed proactively, Sri Lanka too can play catch me with our neighbours in the race for solar power.
Several other larger solar parks have been in the planning for some time. The 100 MW solar park in Siyambaladuwa is expected to be tendered for soon.
The major challenge ahead
Our energy future needs to be “Electrical”. Solar energy paves the way and could also become the most important player by democratising the electrical generation industry. Thus the future generators of the electricity will be the consumers themselves as ” Prosumers”
The most important nationwide impact it the indigenization of the energy industry both the resources as well as the owners and operators of the facilities. This has immense impacts on the balance of payments and long term energy security and in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals.
This note is designed only to highlight the great opportunity awaiting us, only if we have the courage and the vision to exploit same for Sri Lanka. The feasibility of doing so has been proven all over the world, even where the resource is much less pronounced. Do we as professionals accept this challenge to justify our claim for excellence and national service?
Author
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There’s an ill more dangerous and pervasive than the Coronavirus that’s currently sweeping Sri Lanka. That is the fear to express one’s convictions. Across the public sector of the country in particular many persons holding high office are stringently regulating and controlling the voices of their consciences and this bodes ill for all and the country.
The corrupting impact of fear was discussed in this column a couple of weeks ago when dealing with the military coup in Myanmar. It stands to the enduring credit of ousted Myanmarese Head of Government Aung San Suu Kyi that she, perhaps for the first time in the history of modern political thought, singled out fear, and not power, as the principal cause of corruption within the individual; powerful or otherwise.
To be sure, power corrupts but the corrupting impact of fear is graver and more devastating. For instance, the fear in a person holding ministerial office or in a senior public sector official, that he would lose position and power as a result of speaking out his convictions and sincere beliefs on matters of the first importance, would lead to a country’s ills going unaddressed and uncorrected.
Besides, the individual concerned would be devaluing himself in the eyes of all irrevocably and revealing himself to be a person who would be willing to compromise his moral integrity for petty worldly gain or a ‘mess of pottage’. This happens all the while in Lankan public life. Some of those who have wielded and are wielding immense power in Sri Lanka leave very much to be desired from these standards.
It could be said that fear has prevented Sri Lanka from growing in every vital respect over the decades and has earned for itself the notoriety of being a directionless country.
All these ills and more are contained in the current controversy in Sri Lanka over the disposal of the bodies of Covid victims, for example. The Sri Lankan polity has no choice but to abide by scientific advice on this question. Since authorities of the standing of even the WHO have declared that the burial of the bodies of those dying of Covid could not prove to be injurious to the wider public, the Sri Lankan health authorities could go ahead and sanction the burying of the bodies concerned. What’s preventing the local authorities from taking this course since they claim to be on the side of science? Who or what are they fearing? This is the issue that’s crying out to be probed and answered.
Considering the need for absolute truthfulness and honesty on the part of all relevant persons and quarters in matters such as these, the latter have no choice but to resign from their positions if they are prevented from following the dictates of their consciences. If they are firmly convinced that burials could bring no harm, they are obliged to take up the position that burials should be allowed.
If any ‘higher authority’ is preventing them from allowing burials, our ministers and officials are conscience-bound to renounce their positions in protest, rather than behave compromisingly and engage in ‘double think’ and ‘double talk’. By adopting the latter course they are helping none but keeping the country in a state of chronic uncertainty, which is a handy recipe for social instabiliy and division.
In the Sri Lankan context, the failure on the part of the quarters that matter to follow scientific advice on the burials question could result in the aggravation of Islamophobia, or hatred of the practitioners of Islam, in the country. Sri Lanka could do without this latter phobia and hatred on account of its implications for national stability and development. The 30 year war against separatist forces was all about the prevention by military means of ‘nation-breaking’. The disastrous results for Sri Lanka from this war are continuing to weigh it down and are part of the international offensive against Sri Lanka in the UNHCR.
However, Islamophobia is an almost world wide phenomenon. It was greatly strengthened during Donald Trump’s presidential tenure in the US. While in office Trump resorted to the divisive ruling strategy of quite a few populist authoritarian rulers of the South. Essentially, the manoeuvre is to divide and rule by pandering to the racial prejudices of majority communities.
It has happened continually in Sri Lanka. In the initial post-independence years and for several decades after, it was a case of some populist politicians of the South whipping-up anti-Tamil sentiments. Some Tamil politicians did likewise in respect of the majority community. No doubt, both such quarters have done Sri Lanka immeasurable harm. By failing to follow scientific advice on the burial question and by not doing what is right, Sri Lanka’s current authorities are opening themselves to the charge that they are pandering to religious extremists among the majority community.
The murderous, destructive course of action adopted by some extremist sections among Muslim communities world wide, including of course Sri Lanka, has not earned the condemnation it deserves from moderate Muslims who make-up the preponderant majority in the Muslim community. It is up to moderate opinion in the latter collectivity to come out more strongly and persuasively against religious extremists in their midst. It will prove to have a cementing and unifying impact among communities.
It is not sufficiently appreciated by governments in the global South in particular that by voicing for religious and racial unity and by working consistently towards it, they would be strengthening democratic development, which is an essential condition for a country’s growth in all senses.
A ‘divided house’ is doomed to fall; this is the lesson of history. ‘National security’ cannot be had without human security and peaceful living among communities is central to the latter. There cannot be any ‘double talk’ or ‘politically correct’ opinions on this question. Truth and falsehood are the only valid categories of thought and speech.
Those in authority everywhere claiming to be democratic need to adopt a scientific outlook on this issue as well. Studies conducted on plural societies in South Asia, for example, reveal that the promotion of friendly, cordial ties among communities invariably brings about healing among estranged groups and produces social peace. This is the truth that is waiting to be acted upon.
Author
By Sanjeewa Jayaweera
It was on 3rd January 1972 that our family arrived in Karachi from Moscow. Our departure from Moscow had been delayed for a few weeks due to the military confrontation between Pakistan and India. It ended on 16th December 1971. After that, international flights were not permitted for some time.
The contrast between Moscow and Karachi was unbelievable. First and foremost, Moscow’s temperature was near minus 40 degrees centigrade, while in Karachi, it was sunny and a warm 28 degrees centigrade. However, what struck us most was the extreme warmth with which the airport authorities greeted our family. As my father was a diplomat, we were quickly ushered to the airport’s VIP Lounge. We were in transit on our way to Rawalpindi, the airport serving the capital of Islamabad.
We quickly realized that the word “we are from Sri Lanka” opened all doors just as saying “open sesame” gained entry to Aladdin’s cave! The broad smile, extreme courtesy, and genuine warmth we received from the Pakistani people were unbelievable.
This was all to do with Mrs Sirima Bandaranaike’s decision to allow Pakistani aircraft to land in Colombo to refuel on the way to Dhaka in East Pakistan during the military confrontation between Pakistan and India. It was a brave decision by Mrs Bandaranaike (Mrs B), and the successive governments and Sri Lanka people are still enjoying the fruits of it. Pakistan has been a steadfast and loyal supporter of our country. They have come to our assistance time and again in times of great need when many have turned their back on us. They have indeed been an “all-weather” friend of our country.
Getting back to 1972, I was an early beneficiary of Pakistani people’s love for Sri Lankans. I failed the entrance exam to gain entry to the only English medium school in Islamabad! However, when I met the Principal, along with my father, he said, “Sanjeewa, although you failed the entrance exam, I will this time make an exception as Sri Lankans are our dear friends.” After that, the joke around the family dinner table was that I owed my education in Pakistan to Mrs B!
At school, my brother and I were extended a warm welcome and always greeted “our good friends from Sri Lanka.” I felt when playing cricket for our college; our runs were cheered more loudly than of others.
One particular incident that I remember well was when the Embassy received a telex from the Foreign inistry. It requested that our High Commissioner seek an immediate meeting with the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr Zulifikar Ali Bhutto (ZB), and convey a message from Mrs B. The message requested that an urgent shipment of rice be dispatched to Sri Lanka as there would be an imminent rice shortage. As the Ambassador was not in the station, the responsibility devolved on my father.
It usually takes about a week or more to get an audience with the Prime Minister (PM) of a foreign country due to their busy schedule. However, given the urgency, my father spoke to the Foreign Ministry’s Permanent Sectary, who fortunately was our neighbour and sought an urgent appointment. My father received a call from the PM’s secretary around 10 P.M asking him to come over to the PM’s residence. My father met ZB around midnight. ZB was about to retire to bed and, as such, was in his pyjamas and gown enjoying a cigar! He had greeted my father and had asked, “Mr Jayaweera, what can we do for great friend Madam Bandaranaike?. My father conveyed the message from Colombo and quietly mentioned that there would be riots in the country if there is no rice!
ZB had immediately got the Food Commissioner of Pakistan on the line and said, “I want a shipload of rice to be in Colombo within the next 72 hours!” The Food Commissioner reverted within a few minutes, saying that nothing was available and the last export shipment had left the port only a few hours ago to another country. ZB had instructed to turn the ship around and send it to Colombo. This despite protests from the Food Commissioner about terms and conditions of the Letter of Credit prohibiting non-delivery. Sri Lanka got its delivery of rice!
The next was the visit of Mrs B to Pakistan. On arrival in Rawalpindi airport, she was given a hero’s welcome, which Pakistan had previously only offered to President Gaddafi of Libya, who financially backed Pakistan with his oil money. That day, I missed school and accompanied my parents to the airport. On our way, we witnessed thousands of people had gathered by the roadside to welcome Mrs B.
When we walked to the airport’s tarmac, thousands of people were standing in temporary stands waving Sri Lanka and Pakistan flags and chanting “Sri Lanka Pakistan Zindabad.” The noise emanating from the crowd was as loud and passionate as the cheering that the Pakistani cricket team received during a test match. It was electric!
I believe she was only the second head of state given the privilege of addressing both assemblies of Parliament. The other being Gaddafi. There was genuine affection from Mrs B amongst the people of Pakistan.
I always remember the indefatigable efforts of Mr Abdul Haffez Kardar, a cabinet minister and the President of the Pakistan Cricket Board. From around 1973 onwards, he passionately championed Sri Lanka’s cause to be admitted as a full member of the International Cricket Council (ICC) and granted test status. Every year, he would propose at the ICC’s annual meeting, but England and Australia’s veto kept us out until 1981.
I always felt that our Cricket Board made a mistake by not inviting Pakistan to play our inaugural test match. We should have appreciated Mr Kardar and Pakistan’s efforts. In 1974 the Pakistan board invited our team for a tour involving three test matches and a few first-class games. Most of those who played in our first test match was part of that tour, and no doubt gained significant exposure playing against a highly talented Pakistani team.
Several Pakistani greats were part of the Pakistan and India team that played a match soon after the Central Bank bomb in Colombo to prove that it was safe to play cricket in Colombo. It was a magnificent gesture by both Pakistan and India. Our greatest cricket triumph was in Pakistan when we won the World Cup in 1996. I am sure the players and those who watched the match on TV will remember the passionate support our team received that night from the Pakistani crowd. It was like playing at home!
I also recall reading about how the Pakistani government air freighted several Multi Barrell artillery guns and ammunition to Sri Lanka when the A rmy camp in Jaffna was under severe threat from the LTTE. This was even more important than the shipload of rice that ZB sent. This was crucial as most other countries refused to sell arms to our country during the war.
Time and again, Pakistan has steadfastly supported our country’s cause at the UNHCR. No doubt this year, too, their diplomats will work tirelessly to assist our country.
We extend a warm welcome to Mr Imran Khan, the Prime Minister of Pakistan. He is a truly inspirational individual who was undoubtedly an excellent cricketer. Since retirement from cricket, he has decided to get involved in politics, and after several years of patiently building up his support base, he won the last parliamentary elections. I hope that just as much as he galvanized Sri Lankan cricketers, his political journey would act as a catalyst for people like Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene to get involved in politics. Cricket has been called a “gentleman’s game.” Whilst politics is far from it!.
Author
Believe me, seeing certain videos, on social media, depicting action, on the dance floor, at some of these entertainment venues, got me wondering whether this Coronavirus pandemic is REAL!
To those having a good time, at these particular venues, and, I guess, the management, as well, what the world is experiencing now doesn’t seem to be their concerned.
Obviously, such irresponsible behaviour could create more problems for those who are battling to halt the spread of Covid-19, and the new viriant of Covid, in our part of the world.
The videos, on display, on social media, show certain venues, packed to capacity – with hardly anyone wearing a mask, and social distancing…only a dream..
How can one think of social distancing while gyrating, on a dance floor, that is over crowded!
If this trend continues, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Coronavirus makes its presence felt…at such venues.
And, then, what happens to the entertainment scene, and those involved in this field, especially the musicians? No work, whatsoever!
Lots of countries have closed nightclubs, and venues, where people gather, in order to curtail the spread of this deadly virus that has already claimed the lives of thousands.
Thailand did it and the country is still having lots of restrictions, where entertainment is concerned, and that is probably the reason why Thailand has been able to control the spread of the Coronavirus.
With a population of over 69 million, they have had (so far), a little over 25,000 cases, and 83 deaths, while we, with a population of around 21 million, have over 80,000 cases, and more than 450 deaths.
I’m not saying we should do away with entertainment – totally – but we need to follow a format, connected with the ‘new normal,’ where masks and social distancing are mandatory requirements at these venues. And, dancing, I believe, should be banned, at least temporarily, as one can’t maintain the required social distance, while on the dance floor, especially after drinks.
Police spokesman DIG Ajith Rohana keeps emphasising, on TV, radio, and in the newspapers, the need to adhere to the health regulations, now in force, and that those who fail to do so would be penalised.
He has also stated that plainclothes officers would move around to apprehend such offenders.
Perhaps, he should instruct his officers to pay surprise visits to some of these entertainment venues.
He would certainly have more than a bus load of offenders to be whisked off for PCR/Rapid Antigen tests!
I need to quote what Dr. H.T. Wickremasinghe said in his article, published in The Island of Tuesday, February 16th, 2021:
“…let me conclude, while emphasising the need to continue our general public health measures, such as wearing masks, social distancing, and avoiding crowded gatherings, to reduce the risk of contact with an infected person.
“There is no science to beat common sense.”
But…do some of our folks have this thing called COMMON SENSE!
