Features
Finance Capital after COVID-19
Kumar David
Hyman Minsky (1919-1996) is celebrated for his thesis that economic recessions seemed to be triggered by shocks to the financial system. Downturns in the last 70 years were prompted by stock-market crashes, financial defaults and in 2008–09 a shock in the banking system. Though the underlying cause may lie in declines in the rate of profit, disruptions in production, surplus value extraction bottlenecks or supply-demand dislocations, the actual breakdown manifests itself in the financial system not in the production systems – the oil crises of the 1970s was an example of an exception. Marx was well aware that the crisis first manifests itself in the “circuit of capital”, vide Kapital Volume II, but it was Minsky who spelt it out most clearly.
The actual instant of free fall inauguration has even earned the name Minsky Moment. The current (2020) recession is different: it was triggered by a global pandemic although the conditions for a recession had been maturing in the womb of global finance capital for several years. Covid was the catalyst, imbalances in global finance capital the cause. I do not need to expand on this remark since it is recognised. Recall the reckless expansion of money-supply as otherwise capital would have gone under the bus globally (quantitative expansion); exploding debt (for example US Federal Debt will reach 100% of GDP at end 2020); income and wealth inequality at grotesque levels; and QUAD a US led group including Japan, India an Australia has commenced, de facto, a strategic and economic cold-war against China which will fracture already dislocated global supply chains.
Nevertheless, the pregnancy remained under wraps until Covid tore off the cover and exposed a wobbly global economy. Covid proved to be more than a catalyst; it has turned into a calamity. Let me quote a few simply unbelievable events. The Australian government has announced that international travel won’t resume until the very end of 2021. “International travel by tourists and foreign students will remain closed until late next year”, said Finance Minister Josh Frydenberg in a statement after the federal budget last week. “Citizens are banned from leaving the country and no international travellers are allowed in except for those on a short list of exemptions”.
The Country has gone into lockdown, literally. What will happen to Australia’s economy? Where are India and Brazil going? It seems that the Modi and Bolsonaro governments have given up; they are unable to cope. With seven and five million cases respectively, they have neither the hospital facilities nor quarantine accommodation. In country after country, the better the less said about the USA and UK, a despondent message is coming through: “It’ll never be the same again; there will be, there has to be transformative change in the global economic and political order”. This short essay will make some comments on the future of global finance capital with brief asides about Sri Lanka.
Livelihood and employment will be the imperatives driving any government and any economic arrangement that hopes to survive. I don’t know if the revolution, anarchy or psychological depression is around the corner, but look down the road a few years and surely it cannot continue like business in the past. The World Bank predicts that the pandemic will force 150 million into extreme poverty globally (less than $1.90 per person per day); and how many more into not so extreme poverty? You have to dig it out of the report but it seems more than a quarter of the world’s population will have to survive well below the $3.20 line. Nope, it’s impossible to prevent that drastic restructuring. Even if capitalism, with finance capital at the helm survives, how will it be transformed by international pressures, domestic class warfare (make no mistakes it’s on the way) and by government actions?
At a minimum a tough new regulatory environment will slot into place in all countries. These will include new health & occupational safety requirements, income protection and environmental regulations. Income protection will be a major concern in the coming years because Covid related disruptions will not go way tomorrow. My guess is that economic disruptions related to Covid are unlikely to abate for three to five years. (Sri Lanka can kiss goodbye to bikini and beach tourism for the next three years but culture and nature related tourism may revive sooner). Income protection is an idea that is catching on. In some places including some Indian states the government will pick up two-thirds of the salary bill when factories are closed due to Covid induced shutdowns. This can be recommended to our two-thirds besotted regime but the problem is that it is of no help to self-employed (think three-wheeler wallahs) and the informal sector (think itinerant journeymen and kerb-side hawkers).
My topic today however is not these small potatoes abut finance capital. Research in the US has shown that contrary to expectations lockdown did not have a much different impact on the three sectors, services & retail, manufacturing and finance. All three sectors, given their heterogeneous exposures to demand and supply factors, suffered similarly, but for different reasons of course. Banks due to curbs on interest rates and limited borrowing, manufacturing due to factory shut down and itinerant workers and the informal sector were killed by curfew. Both the manufacturing and banking sectors witnessed reduced net portfolio inflows. Fiscal and monetary stimulus – that is exertion by the state to save capitalism – played an important role in attenuating the negative impact of the global shock.
A curious factor in the US is that yield on the Treasury Bond has plunged; the ten-year bond for example it is trading at well below 1% and this underpins interest rates in general. The bond yield falls when folks rush into bonds because they have lost confidence in the future of the investment economy and seek a safe haven. When bond prices rise interest rates fall, driving savers, pensioners and banks into difficulty; it should be attractive for investors but in the prevailing post-2010, and now worse, gloomy scenario the well-heeled borrow to invest in stocks (for asset price inflation) and property (a safe haven) exacerbating wealth inequity. Companies in the US and the UK are not investing in manufacturing or the production economy
Finance capital is typified by the big banks, hedge and other funds and investment houses and billion-dollar investors. Banks have felt massive effects from the crisis and are not able to play their usual role in getting the economy back on track— they are fearful of providing loans to businesses that have buckled. Banks are taking massive provisions, and offering negative guidance for coming quarters. If the next three years go badly bank capital will fall below CET1, a capital benchmark used as a precautionary means to protect banks from buckling. If the financial system’s plunges liquidity and assets can evaporate quickly in a plunging market.
Hence a major expectation in the coming period is the introduction of stringent new controls on banks and investment houses, that is on finance capital which is playing Ludo with other people’s, money; viz. market money. But in the wake of these changes will also come politically and socially driven adjustments. Demands for the protection of livelihood, that is provision of decent food and adequate housing even when the virus disrupts employment will soon become a mass demand. No government or economic system that is unable to satisfy these needs is likely to survive. True food riots and civil disobedience are not on the horizon, the infection itself makes collective action of this nature very difficult but there are limits to patience and the example of the USA where mass disregard of sensible protection, beginning with an asinine President Trump, could catch on. But governments all over the world are becoming unpopular; Gotabaya backed out of a referendum on certain clauses of 20A because he knows as sure as night follows day that he will lose. The pendulum has swung halfway back and Covid gets much of the credit.
Deeper and stronger government regulation will curb the freedoms of finance capital and the run of market forces. The writing is on the wall. Even the IMF in its 2020 Global Financial Stability Report praises China for its financial stability during the pandemic and ascribes it to “limited external financial linkages, a strong role of government-owned financial institutions, and proactive efforts by the authorities that helped stabilize market conditions.” Indeed, China’s commercial banks remained healthy and posted profit in the first quarter of 2020, however the banking sector is under challenge. China’s financial opening and reform, would undermine banks though the government remains committed. Majority foreign ownership in securities, futures, insurance and currency brokerage will be allowed. It is possible that some of these trends will now be reversed.
In Sri Lanka traditional economists constantly repeat a call on the government to reduce expenditure and increase revenue. Both may prove impossible; it is untenable for political reasons to cut welfare or raise prices of essentials if the government wants to survive A second wave of Covid will make it utterly impossible. Increasing revenue can only be done by raising taxes on the rich and the super-rich; the government is quite unwilling to do this as it will anger its class and business base and those who financed its election campaigns. Even the Brandix fracas has put the current Administration in a bind because the multimillionaire Brandix is said to have financed its election campaigns.
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There’s an ill more dangerous and pervasive than the Coronavirus that’s currently sweeping Sri Lanka. That is the fear to express one’s convictions. Across the public sector of the country in particular many persons holding high office are stringently regulating and controlling the voices of their consciences and this bodes ill for all and the country.
The corrupting impact of fear was discussed in this column a couple of weeks ago when dealing with the military coup in Myanmar. It stands to the enduring credit of ousted Myanmarese Head of Government Aung San Suu Kyi that she, perhaps for the first time in the history of modern political thought, singled out fear, and not power, as the principal cause of corruption within the individual; powerful or otherwise.
To be sure, power corrupts but the corrupting impact of fear is graver and more devastating. For instance, the fear in a person holding ministerial office or in a senior public sector official, that he would lose position and power as a result of speaking out his convictions and sincere beliefs on matters of the first importance, would lead to a country’s ills going unaddressed and uncorrected.
Besides, the individual concerned would be devaluing himself in the eyes of all irrevocably and revealing himself to be a person who would be willing to compromise his moral integrity for petty worldly gain or a ‘mess of pottage’. This happens all the while in Lankan public life. Some of those who have wielded and are wielding immense power in Sri Lanka leave very much to be desired from these standards.
It could be said that fear has prevented Sri Lanka from growing in every vital respect over the decades and has earned for itself the notoriety of being a directionless country.
All these ills and more are contained in the current controversy in Sri Lanka over the disposal of the bodies of Covid victims, for example. The Sri Lankan polity has no choice but to abide by scientific advice on this question. Since authorities of the standing of even the WHO have declared that the burial of the bodies of those dying of Covid could not prove to be injurious to the wider public, the Sri Lankan health authorities could go ahead and sanction the burying of the bodies concerned. What’s preventing the local authorities from taking this course since they claim to be on the side of science? Who or what are they fearing? This is the issue that’s crying out to be probed and answered.
Considering the need for absolute truthfulness and honesty on the part of all relevant persons and quarters in matters such as these, the latter have no choice but to resign from their positions if they are prevented from following the dictates of their consciences. If they are firmly convinced that burials could bring no harm, they are obliged to take up the position that burials should be allowed.
If any ‘higher authority’ is preventing them from allowing burials, our ministers and officials are conscience-bound to renounce their positions in protest, rather than behave compromisingly and engage in ‘double think’ and ‘double talk’. By adopting the latter course they are helping none but keeping the country in a state of chronic uncertainty, which is a handy recipe for social instabiliy and division.
In the Sri Lankan context, the failure on the part of the quarters that matter to follow scientific advice on the burials question could result in the aggravation of Islamophobia, or hatred of the practitioners of Islam, in the country. Sri Lanka could do without this latter phobia and hatred on account of its implications for national stability and development. The 30 year war against separatist forces was all about the prevention by military means of ‘nation-breaking’. The disastrous results for Sri Lanka from this war are continuing to weigh it down and are part of the international offensive against Sri Lanka in the UNHCR.
However, Islamophobia is an almost world wide phenomenon. It was greatly strengthened during Donald Trump’s presidential tenure in the US. While in office Trump resorted to the divisive ruling strategy of quite a few populist authoritarian rulers of the South. Essentially, the manoeuvre is to divide and rule by pandering to the racial prejudices of majority communities.
It has happened continually in Sri Lanka. In the initial post-independence years and for several decades after, it was a case of some populist politicians of the South whipping-up anti-Tamil sentiments. Some Tamil politicians did likewise in respect of the majority community. No doubt, both such quarters have done Sri Lanka immeasurable harm. By failing to follow scientific advice on the burial question and by not doing what is right, Sri Lanka’s current authorities are opening themselves to the charge that they are pandering to religious extremists among the majority community.
The murderous, destructive course of action adopted by some extremist sections among Muslim communities world wide, including of course Sri Lanka, has not earned the condemnation it deserves from moderate Muslims who make-up the preponderant majority in the Muslim community. It is up to moderate opinion in the latter collectivity to come out more strongly and persuasively against religious extremists in their midst. It will prove to have a cementing and unifying impact among communities.
It is not sufficiently appreciated by governments in the global South in particular that by voicing for religious and racial unity and by working consistently towards it, they would be strengthening democratic development, which is an essential condition for a country’s growth in all senses.
A ‘divided house’ is doomed to fall; this is the lesson of history. ‘National security’ cannot be had without human security and peaceful living among communities is central to the latter. There cannot be any ‘double talk’ or ‘politically correct’ opinions on this question. Truth and falsehood are the only valid categories of thought and speech.
Those in authority everywhere claiming to be democratic need to adopt a scientific outlook on this issue as well. Studies conducted on plural societies in South Asia, for example, reveal that the promotion of friendly, cordial ties among communities invariably brings about healing among estranged groups and produces social peace. This is the truth that is waiting to be acted upon.
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By Sanjeewa Jayaweera
It was on 3rd January 1972 that our family arrived in Karachi from Moscow. Our departure from Moscow had been delayed for a few weeks due to the military confrontation between Pakistan and India. It ended on 16th December 1971. After that, international flights were not permitted for some time.
The contrast between Moscow and Karachi was unbelievable. First and foremost, Moscow’s temperature was near minus 40 degrees centigrade, while in Karachi, it was sunny and a warm 28 degrees centigrade. However, what struck us most was the extreme warmth with which the airport authorities greeted our family. As my father was a diplomat, we were quickly ushered to the airport’s VIP Lounge. We were in transit on our way to Rawalpindi, the airport serving the capital of Islamabad.
We quickly realized that the word “we are from Sri Lanka” opened all doors just as saying “open sesame” gained entry to Aladdin’s cave! The broad smile, extreme courtesy, and genuine warmth we received from the Pakistani people were unbelievable.
This was all to do with Mrs Sirima Bandaranaike’s decision to allow Pakistani aircraft to land in Colombo to refuel on the way to Dhaka in East Pakistan during the military confrontation between Pakistan and India. It was a brave decision by Mrs Bandaranaike (Mrs B), and the successive governments and Sri Lanka people are still enjoying the fruits of it. Pakistan has been a steadfast and loyal supporter of our country. They have come to our assistance time and again in times of great need when many have turned their back on us. They have indeed been an “all-weather” friend of our country.
Getting back to 1972, I was an early beneficiary of Pakistani people’s love for Sri Lankans. I failed the entrance exam to gain entry to the only English medium school in Islamabad! However, when I met the Principal, along with my father, he said, “Sanjeewa, although you failed the entrance exam, I will this time make an exception as Sri Lankans are our dear friends.” After that, the joke around the family dinner table was that I owed my education in Pakistan to Mrs B!
At school, my brother and I were extended a warm welcome and always greeted “our good friends from Sri Lanka.” I felt when playing cricket for our college; our runs were cheered more loudly than of others.
One particular incident that I remember well was when the Embassy received a telex from the Foreign inistry. It requested that our High Commissioner seek an immediate meeting with the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr Zulifikar Ali Bhutto (ZB), and convey a message from Mrs B. The message requested that an urgent shipment of rice be dispatched to Sri Lanka as there would be an imminent rice shortage. As the Ambassador was not in the station, the responsibility devolved on my father.
It usually takes about a week or more to get an audience with the Prime Minister (PM) of a foreign country due to their busy schedule. However, given the urgency, my father spoke to the Foreign Ministry’s Permanent Sectary, who fortunately was our neighbour and sought an urgent appointment. My father received a call from the PM’s secretary around 10 P.M asking him to come over to the PM’s residence. My father met ZB around midnight. ZB was about to retire to bed and, as such, was in his pyjamas and gown enjoying a cigar! He had greeted my father and had asked, “Mr Jayaweera, what can we do for great friend Madam Bandaranaike?. My father conveyed the message from Colombo and quietly mentioned that there would be riots in the country if there is no rice!
ZB had immediately got the Food Commissioner of Pakistan on the line and said, “I want a shipload of rice to be in Colombo within the next 72 hours!” The Food Commissioner reverted within a few minutes, saying that nothing was available and the last export shipment had left the port only a few hours ago to another country. ZB had instructed to turn the ship around and send it to Colombo. This despite protests from the Food Commissioner about terms and conditions of the Letter of Credit prohibiting non-delivery. Sri Lanka got its delivery of rice!
The next was the visit of Mrs B to Pakistan. On arrival in Rawalpindi airport, she was given a hero’s welcome, which Pakistan had previously only offered to President Gaddafi of Libya, who financially backed Pakistan with his oil money. That day, I missed school and accompanied my parents to the airport. On our way, we witnessed thousands of people had gathered by the roadside to welcome Mrs B.
When we walked to the airport’s tarmac, thousands of people were standing in temporary stands waving Sri Lanka and Pakistan flags and chanting “Sri Lanka Pakistan Zindabad.” The noise emanating from the crowd was as loud and passionate as the cheering that the Pakistani cricket team received during a test match. It was electric!
I believe she was only the second head of state given the privilege of addressing both assemblies of Parliament. The other being Gaddafi. There was genuine affection from Mrs B amongst the people of Pakistan.
I always remember the indefatigable efforts of Mr Abdul Haffez Kardar, a cabinet minister and the President of the Pakistan Cricket Board. From around 1973 onwards, he passionately championed Sri Lanka’s cause to be admitted as a full member of the International Cricket Council (ICC) and granted test status. Every year, he would propose at the ICC’s annual meeting, but England and Australia’s veto kept us out until 1981.
I always felt that our Cricket Board made a mistake by not inviting Pakistan to play our inaugural test match. We should have appreciated Mr Kardar and Pakistan’s efforts. In 1974 the Pakistan board invited our team for a tour involving three test matches and a few first-class games. Most of those who played in our first test match was part of that tour, and no doubt gained significant exposure playing against a highly talented Pakistani team.
Several Pakistani greats were part of the Pakistan and India team that played a match soon after the Central Bank bomb in Colombo to prove that it was safe to play cricket in Colombo. It was a magnificent gesture by both Pakistan and India. Our greatest cricket triumph was in Pakistan when we won the World Cup in 1996. I am sure the players and those who watched the match on TV will remember the passionate support our team received that night from the Pakistani crowd. It was like playing at home!
I also recall reading about how the Pakistani government air freighted several Multi Barrell artillery guns and ammunition to Sri Lanka when the A rmy camp in Jaffna was under severe threat from the LTTE. This was even more important than the shipload of rice that ZB sent. This was crucial as most other countries refused to sell arms to our country during the war.
Time and again, Pakistan has steadfastly supported our country’s cause at the UNHCR. No doubt this year, too, their diplomats will work tirelessly to assist our country.
We extend a warm welcome to Mr Imran Khan, the Prime Minister of Pakistan. He is a truly inspirational individual who was undoubtedly an excellent cricketer. Since retirement from cricket, he has decided to get involved in politics, and after several years of patiently building up his support base, he won the last parliamentary elections. I hope that just as much as he galvanized Sri Lankan cricketers, his political journey would act as a catalyst for people like Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene to get involved in politics. Cricket has been called a “gentleman’s game.” Whilst politics is far from it!.
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Believe me, seeing certain videos, on social media, depicting action, on the dance floor, at some of these entertainment venues, got me wondering whether this Coronavirus pandemic is REAL!
To those having a good time, at these particular venues, and, I guess, the management, as well, what the world is experiencing now doesn’t seem to be their concerned.
Obviously, such irresponsible behaviour could create more problems for those who are battling to halt the spread of Covid-19, and the new viriant of Covid, in our part of the world.
The videos, on display, on social media, show certain venues, packed to capacity – with hardly anyone wearing a mask, and social distancing…only a dream..
How can one think of social distancing while gyrating, on a dance floor, that is over crowded!
If this trend continues, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Coronavirus makes its presence felt…at such venues.
And, then, what happens to the entertainment scene, and those involved in this field, especially the musicians? No work, whatsoever!
Lots of countries have closed nightclubs, and venues, where people gather, in order to curtail the spread of this deadly virus that has already claimed the lives of thousands.
Thailand did it and the country is still having lots of restrictions, where entertainment is concerned, and that is probably the reason why Thailand has been able to control the spread of the Coronavirus.
With a population of over 69 million, they have had (so far), a little over 25,000 cases, and 83 deaths, while we, with a population of around 21 million, have over 80,000 cases, and more than 450 deaths.
I’m not saying we should do away with entertainment – totally – but we need to follow a format, connected with the ‘new normal,’ where masks and social distancing are mandatory requirements at these venues. And, dancing, I believe, should be banned, at least temporarily, as one can’t maintain the required social distance, while on the dance floor, especially after drinks.
Police spokesman DIG Ajith Rohana keeps emphasising, on TV, radio, and in the newspapers, the need to adhere to the health regulations, now in force, and that those who fail to do so would be penalised.
He has also stated that plainclothes officers would move around to apprehend such offenders.
Perhaps, he should instruct his officers to pay surprise visits to some of these entertainment venues.
He would certainly have more than a bus load of offenders to be whisked off for PCR/Rapid Antigen tests!
I need to quote what Dr. H.T. Wickremasinghe said in his article, published in The Island of Tuesday, February 16th, 2021:
“…let me conclude, while emphasising the need to continue our general public health measures, such as wearing masks, social distancing, and avoiding crowded gatherings, to reduce the risk of contact with an infected person.
“There is no science to beat common sense.”
But…do some of our folks have this thing called COMMON SENSE!
