Features
Gotabaya Autocracy: Inducements and Impediments
by Kumar David
It has been a constant if annoying refrain of this column that there are powerful class, political, military, cultural and racial-religious forces pushing Lanka in the direction of an autocratic state. Up to now I have taken pains to delineate the factors encouraging autocracy while neglecting those impeding it. This was for reasons of electoral exigency – the country has had two elections on its hands and theoretical nuances needed to be set aside so as not to cloud practical urgencies. I will now depart from this constraint and discuss both push and pull pressures. This essay is going to be controversial but if it evokes healthy debate and provokes constructive comment it is worth the risk.
Let us not fool ourselves, the call for discipline, strong government and a no-nonsense autocrat at the helm has been widespread and gained further ground during the Gota presidency. Regarding COVID-19, confronted with the choice between biological survival and economic benefit Gota made the right choice. Hence his popularity is not limited to power hungry military-brass, slavish media, crooked and obnoxious SLPP politicos who spotted a messiah to pull their nuts out of the fire, and Viythmaga-Yukthiya upstart professionals seeking sinecures. No, it is more widespread. Autocracy-philia spread like a pandemic and penetrated the public mind as a Gota love-in; the abstract concept found personal incarnation. Over 70% of Sinhala-Buddhists and more than a usual number of Eastern Province and Vanni Tamils and Muslims voted for pro-Gota tickets.
A critical feature of this process that I will comment on anon is the emerging relationship between the Buddhist clergy and the hardening autocratic process. I am by no means convinced that the monks will one and all adapt to it. The history of the Buddhist clergy in Sri Lanka has been rebellious. It did not get on well with Kasyapa and has a record of obstinate opposition to all colonial rulers. The conflict between the Abhayagiriya and the Maha Vihara in the 12th century is not at all similar to the current imbroglio but it does show that transformative political events profoundly disrupt the clergy. More on this anon.
Sleaze has been widely commented on so I can keep my harangue brief and pithy. The elections have proved that the public has no interest, absolutely none, in choosing parliamentarians of financial integrity with a proven work ethic. Please let this sink in! It is criminals, rogues and buffoons that are the squad of choice. Twenty to thirty such MPs are government, a few are SJB. All meet at least one, often more than one of the following criteria: murderer on death row; alleged murder; arrested, remanded and/or indicted for theft in some cases of tens of millions of rupees; criminal breach of trust; passport forgery; abuse of state property and vehicles; unlawful use of firearms; assault, making false statements to the authorities (police or courts), and on and on. Write-ups and a rogues-gallery of some photos is in Sunday Times 9 August in a piece by Namini Wijedasa; a fuller list can fill a page. Gota’s Cabinet includes about ten clean and competent choices but also ten others are publicly named and freely identified as “hora, jathivadhaya or buruwa”. The inclusion of so much muck in the Cabinet undermines Gota’s “I will set up a clean and competent administration” message.
On the obverse side of this ugly story is the tragedy that among the defeated MPs were those ranked among the best by Vertite Research an independent agency, say Sunil Handunetti and Nalinda Jayatissa. Other upright ones too were voted out to make room for scoundrels. I need to make it clear that I am not here discussing the moral debasement of the voting public, though that is horrific. My concern relates to the topic of this essay, the swing to autocracy. Why do people have so little concern for the quality of their MPs? Because their greatest desire is that the Rajapaksas wield supreme power. There is empathy between the cultural character of the people (mainly but not only the Sinhalese) and Rajapaksa mystique. What the Rajapaksas evoke is what Lanka is. It is simplistic to reckon that war victory still enamours Gota to the masses. No, it’s a deeper psyche than that; the Sinhala masses gel with what the Rajapaksas symbolise; what the Rajapaksa phenomenon emanates is what our polity breathes. This will not reverse until the economy collapses; at least till then Rajapaksa state power stands secure.
The UNP was wiped out and Sajith defeated not because of yahapalana’s ineptitude or the bond-scam. There are far bigger and bolder rogues per square centimetre in the SLPP than the UNP or Sajith’s outfit. Nor can the defeat be explained by the split, hugely biased media coverage, campaign restrictions due to the pandemic or the larger turn out of saffron for the Rajapaksas than for Sajith or Ranil. These things mattered but they were not decisive. Even if Sajith and Ranil did not tear out each other’s jugulars, even without the bond-scam, with better media coverage and more saffron robes on stage, still there would have been a huge swing to MR-GR because Sri Lanka psychologically wanted it. Pissu-Sira, had he been on an SJB or UNP ticket would have lost his deposit, shirt and underpants, but on the Rajapaksa bandwagon he romped home with more than 100,000 votes. This proves my message better than words. This is the truth; it is an ugly truth and we are stuck with this ugly truth.
The seamless blending of Gotabhaya mystique into Sinhala consciousness, this symbiosis of the personal with political culture, this choreography of the drama, is what brings the masses into line with an experiment in autocracy. He is the strong man who Asgiriya hailed as an Asian Hitler. The motto of the government going forward will be Gotabhaya adoration more than Sinhala-Buddhism. Hold it! What was that, what did I say? No, no, I don’t think it will be that simple because if Gotaism seeks to supplant Buddhism as the nation’s hegemonic faith much of the clergy will revolt. But you see the point is that autocracy needs an autocrat and an autocrat is built by a paraphernalia of mythologies about the Great Leader, the Helmsman, the Saviour. It is not possible to create an autocratic state without a great autocrat at the helm and that is not possible without an “overdetermining” ideological creed to prop up the Great One. Stop for a moment and consider – Tiberius was deified, Napoleon crowned, Mussolini glorified, Peron hyped and Stalin mummified!
A Gotabaya autocracy too will need the mythology of an overweening nation-wide Gota cult, but precisely this will be in tension with the “leading role of Buddhism.”. Signals of alarm at Gota glory’s overreach can already be detected in the saffron-set. Maybe instead of provoking an indomitable foe the proponents of autocracy may reduce the scope of their project and tone down their cult. For this and other reasons – this is one of the controversial hypotheses in this essay – there is a possibility that Gota and his inner coterie may think it tactically wise to retreat a little on their authoritarian mission.
On the political side an agent that may stall the project is class opposition, especially the working class in the state sector. Take the East Container Terminal slated for joint development with India. Assume for argument’s sake that it is a good joint-venture and assume also that far-reaching commitments have already been made to India. On the other side trade union hostility is implacable – the deal the unions struck with Mahinda only bought time. A second example: While in opposition and during the runup to this election the SLPP hyped the notion that the MCC was a sell-out to imperialism; the usual crap at the hustings. Now by hook or by crook GR-MR salivate for the $480 million. But the dogs they unleashed will turn around to bite. There are other examples of how a GR-MR autocratic project may come in conflict with radicals and unions. What will the state do; take the guns out of the armoury? No one can be sure. That’s why you call these scenarios “Known Unknowns”. The point is this, while a non-autocratic state can climb down, autocracy cannot without eroding its own credibility.
Everybody says “The economy will be the government’s and a would-be autocrat’s undoing” so I can be as brief semi-quaver. Using a broad-brush approach there are three crises; foreign debt servicing, fiscal deficit and third employment. I look at each in relation to what it has in store for the GR-MR outfit over the next one or two years. Dollar debt servicing over the next 12 months (not six, that’s the first course) threatens the very existence of the government, but it is also what it may be able to get around. Yes, we have to find some $4 billion before the end of the year and a like amount next year. If we default the rupee will crash, in that event the Sri Lanka foreign bond yield (effective dollar interest rate) will rocket to .20%, 30% . . . I dread. But the Rajapaksa siblings (all four) will beg, bow, plead and weep for a moratorium on repayments, new loans, enter into SWAP deals, IMF grants and throw themselves at the mercy of Father Confucius, Uncle Sam and Mother India. These gentle worthies will not let us sink; each for his own reasons does not want bedlam in this island. The conditions imposed may be tough, the belt tightened, but in the words of the hymn “We shall be Saved” before we drown in helpless hopeless default.
On the other two concerns – fiscal deficit and employment – I am not whistling so happily in this dark night. I can’t see a way out that does not provoke mass unrest and chaos on the streets. I predict that the deficit will stay for years. Expenditure will exceed revenue by10% of GDP in 2020; countries reaching 15 to 20% are called basket-cases. Lowering expenditure means reducing welfare (Samurdi etc), cutting wages, “labour market reforms” (euphemism for easy firing, reducing wages and employer friendly labour laws), and cutting spending on health, education and subsidies. Forget it, it can’t be done unless Gota’s Brigades are prepared to spray grape-shot in the streets. Raising revenue implies enhanced economic activity, steeper taxes on the rich and higher sales taxes – on all counts, dream on!
Economists are those queer chaps who sonorously, and in all seriousness, tell you that if your lovely old aunty had balls she could become your respected uncle. Their chorus right now is “Export, export, sadhu, sadhu, export”. How the devil to dramatically raise exports within a year or two in the midst of a global downturn, a turning inward to the domestic economy in the US and even Europe and when some 60% of the value of our manufactured exports are imported raw materials and machinery? Yes we must look outwards and integrate more, not less, with global partners but since the focus of this essay is short-term political prospects, I conclude with the comment that prospects are bleak. Furthermore. the deficit in the balance of payments will exceed $3 billion in 2020 and 2021 – everyone knows why; I don’t need to elaborate. So it will be hard going for any guns and thunder regime.
To dwell at similar length on the bleak employment outlook would need several more paragraphs. Autocracy and constitutional reform is a topic all of itself. This essay has been an analysis of “What Is” it has not touched on “What Is to be Done”, another huge topic. Editors like imams are frugal about column inches so I have to cut it short and stop the flow midstream despite my enlarged prostate.
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There’s an ill more dangerous and pervasive than the Coronavirus that’s currently sweeping Sri Lanka. That is the fear to express one’s convictions. Across the public sector of the country in particular many persons holding high office are stringently regulating and controlling the voices of their consciences and this bodes ill for all and the country.
The corrupting impact of fear was discussed in this column a couple of weeks ago when dealing with the military coup in Myanmar. It stands to the enduring credit of ousted Myanmarese Head of Government Aung San Suu Kyi that she, perhaps for the first time in the history of modern political thought, singled out fear, and not power, as the principal cause of corruption within the individual; powerful or otherwise.
To be sure, power corrupts but the corrupting impact of fear is graver and more devastating. For instance, the fear in a person holding ministerial office or in a senior public sector official, that he would lose position and power as a result of speaking out his convictions and sincere beliefs on matters of the first importance, would lead to a country’s ills going unaddressed and uncorrected.
Besides, the individual concerned would be devaluing himself in the eyes of all irrevocably and revealing himself to be a person who would be willing to compromise his moral integrity for petty worldly gain or a ‘mess of pottage’. This happens all the while in Lankan public life. Some of those who have wielded and are wielding immense power in Sri Lanka leave very much to be desired from these standards.
It could be said that fear has prevented Sri Lanka from growing in every vital respect over the decades and has earned for itself the notoriety of being a directionless country.
All these ills and more are contained in the current controversy in Sri Lanka over the disposal of the bodies of Covid victims, for example. The Sri Lankan polity has no choice but to abide by scientific advice on this question. Since authorities of the standing of even the WHO have declared that the burial of the bodies of those dying of Covid could not prove to be injurious to the wider public, the Sri Lankan health authorities could go ahead and sanction the burying of the bodies concerned. What’s preventing the local authorities from taking this course since they claim to be on the side of science? Who or what are they fearing? This is the issue that’s crying out to be probed and answered.
Considering the need for absolute truthfulness and honesty on the part of all relevant persons and quarters in matters such as these, the latter have no choice but to resign from their positions if they are prevented from following the dictates of their consciences. If they are firmly convinced that burials could bring no harm, they are obliged to take up the position that burials should be allowed.
If any ‘higher authority’ is preventing them from allowing burials, our ministers and officials are conscience-bound to renounce their positions in protest, rather than behave compromisingly and engage in ‘double think’ and ‘double talk’. By adopting the latter course they are helping none but keeping the country in a state of chronic uncertainty, which is a handy recipe for social instabiliy and division.
In the Sri Lankan context, the failure on the part of the quarters that matter to follow scientific advice on the burials question could result in the aggravation of Islamophobia, or hatred of the practitioners of Islam, in the country. Sri Lanka could do without this latter phobia and hatred on account of its implications for national stability and development. The 30 year war against separatist forces was all about the prevention by military means of ‘nation-breaking’. The disastrous results for Sri Lanka from this war are continuing to weigh it down and are part of the international offensive against Sri Lanka in the UNHCR.
However, Islamophobia is an almost world wide phenomenon. It was greatly strengthened during Donald Trump’s presidential tenure in the US. While in office Trump resorted to the divisive ruling strategy of quite a few populist authoritarian rulers of the South. Essentially, the manoeuvre is to divide and rule by pandering to the racial prejudices of majority communities.
It has happened continually in Sri Lanka. In the initial post-independence years and for several decades after, it was a case of some populist politicians of the South whipping-up anti-Tamil sentiments. Some Tamil politicians did likewise in respect of the majority community. No doubt, both such quarters have done Sri Lanka immeasurable harm. By failing to follow scientific advice on the burial question and by not doing what is right, Sri Lanka’s current authorities are opening themselves to the charge that they are pandering to religious extremists among the majority community.
The murderous, destructive course of action adopted by some extremist sections among Muslim communities world wide, including of course Sri Lanka, has not earned the condemnation it deserves from moderate Muslims who make-up the preponderant majority in the Muslim community. It is up to moderate opinion in the latter collectivity to come out more strongly and persuasively against religious extremists in their midst. It will prove to have a cementing and unifying impact among communities.
It is not sufficiently appreciated by governments in the global South in particular that by voicing for religious and racial unity and by working consistently towards it, they would be strengthening democratic development, which is an essential condition for a country’s growth in all senses.
A ‘divided house’ is doomed to fall; this is the lesson of history. ‘National security’ cannot be had without human security and peaceful living among communities is central to the latter. There cannot be any ‘double talk’ or ‘politically correct’ opinions on this question. Truth and falsehood are the only valid categories of thought and speech.
Those in authority everywhere claiming to be democratic need to adopt a scientific outlook on this issue as well. Studies conducted on plural societies in South Asia, for example, reveal that the promotion of friendly, cordial ties among communities invariably brings about healing among estranged groups and produces social peace. This is the truth that is waiting to be acted upon.
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By Sanjeewa Jayaweera
It was on 3rd January 1972 that our family arrived in Karachi from Moscow. Our departure from Moscow had been delayed for a few weeks due to the military confrontation between Pakistan and India. It ended on 16th December 1971. After that, international flights were not permitted for some time.
The contrast between Moscow and Karachi was unbelievable. First and foremost, Moscow’s temperature was near minus 40 degrees centigrade, while in Karachi, it was sunny and a warm 28 degrees centigrade. However, what struck us most was the extreme warmth with which the airport authorities greeted our family. As my father was a diplomat, we were quickly ushered to the airport’s VIP Lounge. We were in transit on our way to Rawalpindi, the airport serving the capital of Islamabad.
We quickly realized that the word “we are from Sri Lanka” opened all doors just as saying “open sesame” gained entry to Aladdin’s cave! The broad smile, extreme courtesy, and genuine warmth we received from the Pakistani people were unbelievable.
This was all to do with Mrs Sirima Bandaranaike’s decision to allow Pakistani aircraft to land in Colombo to refuel on the way to Dhaka in East Pakistan during the military confrontation between Pakistan and India. It was a brave decision by Mrs Bandaranaike (Mrs B), and the successive governments and Sri Lanka people are still enjoying the fruits of it. Pakistan has been a steadfast and loyal supporter of our country. They have come to our assistance time and again in times of great need when many have turned their back on us. They have indeed been an “all-weather” friend of our country.
Getting back to 1972, I was an early beneficiary of Pakistani people’s love for Sri Lankans. I failed the entrance exam to gain entry to the only English medium school in Islamabad! However, when I met the Principal, along with my father, he said, “Sanjeewa, although you failed the entrance exam, I will this time make an exception as Sri Lankans are our dear friends.” After that, the joke around the family dinner table was that I owed my education in Pakistan to Mrs B!
At school, my brother and I were extended a warm welcome and always greeted “our good friends from Sri Lanka.” I felt when playing cricket for our college; our runs were cheered more loudly than of others.
One particular incident that I remember well was when the Embassy received a telex from the Foreign inistry. It requested that our High Commissioner seek an immediate meeting with the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr Zulifikar Ali Bhutto (ZB), and convey a message from Mrs B. The message requested that an urgent shipment of rice be dispatched to Sri Lanka as there would be an imminent rice shortage. As the Ambassador was not in the station, the responsibility devolved on my father.
It usually takes about a week or more to get an audience with the Prime Minister (PM) of a foreign country due to their busy schedule. However, given the urgency, my father spoke to the Foreign Ministry’s Permanent Sectary, who fortunately was our neighbour and sought an urgent appointment. My father received a call from the PM’s secretary around 10 P.M asking him to come over to the PM’s residence. My father met ZB around midnight. ZB was about to retire to bed and, as such, was in his pyjamas and gown enjoying a cigar! He had greeted my father and had asked, “Mr Jayaweera, what can we do for great friend Madam Bandaranaike?. My father conveyed the message from Colombo and quietly mentioned that there would be riots in the country if there is no rice!
ZB had immediately got the Food Commissioner of Pakistan on the line and said, “I want a shipload of rice to be in Colombo within the next 72 hours!” The Food Commissioner reverted within a few minutes, saying that nothing was available and the last export shipment had left the port only a few hours ago to another country. ZB had instructed to turn the ship around and send it to Colombo. This despite protests from the Food Commissioner about terms and conditions of the Letter of Credit prohibiting non-delivery. Sri Lanka got its delivery of rice!
The next was the visit of Mrs B to Pakistan. On arrival in Rawalpindi airport, she was given a hero’s welcome, which Pakistan had previously only offered to President Gaddafi of Libya, who financially backed Pakistan with his oil money. That day, I missed school and accompanied my parents to the airport. On our way, we witnessed thousands of people had gathered by the roadside to welcome Mrs B.
When we walked to the airport’s tarmac, thousands of people were standing in temporary stands waving Sri Lanka and Pakistan flags and chanting “Sri Lanka Pakistan Zindabad.” The noise emanating from the crowd was as loud and passionate as the cheering that the Pakistani cricket team received during a test match. It was electric!
I believe she was only the second head of state given the privilege of addressing both assemblies of Parliament. The other being Gaddafi. There was genuine affection from Mrs B amongst the people of Pakistan.
I always remember the indefatigable efforts of Mr Abdul Haffez Kardar, a cabinet minister and the President of the Pakistan Cricket Board. From around 1973 onwards, he passionately championed Sri Lanka’s cause to be admitted as a full member of the International Cricket Council (ICC) and granted test status. Every year, he would propose at the ICC’s annual meeting, but England and Australia’s veto kept us out until 1981.
I always felt that our Cricket Board made a mistake by not inviting Pakistan to play our inaugural test match. We should have appreciated Mr Kardar and Pakistan’s efforts. In 1974 the Pakistan board invited our team for a tour involving three test matches and a few first-class games. Most of those who played in our first test match was part of that tour, and no doubt gained significant exposure playing against a highly talented Pakistani team.
Several Pakistani greats were part of the Pakistan and India team that played a match soon after the Central Bank bomb in Colombo to prove that it was safe to play cricket in Colombo. It was a magnificent gesture by both Pakistan and India. Our greatest cricket triumph was in Pakistan when we won the World Cup in 1996. I am sure the players and those who watched the match on TV will remember the passionate support our team received that night from the Pakistani crowd. It was like playing at home!
I also recall reading about how the Pakistani government air freighted several Multi Barrell artillery guns and ammunition to Sri Lanka when the A rmy camp in Jaffna was under severe threat from the LTTE. This was even more important than the shipload of rice that ZB sent. This was crucial as most other countries refused to sell arms to our country during the war.
Time and again, Pakistan has steadfastly supported our country’s cause at the UNHCR. No doubt this year, too, their diplomats will work tirelessly to assist our country.
We extend a warm welcome to Mr Imran Khan, the Prime Minister of Pakistan. He is a truly inspirational individual who was undoubtedly an excellent cricketer. Since retirement from cricket, he has decided to get involved in politics, and after several years of patiently building up his support base, he won the last parliamentary elections. I hope that just as much as he galvanized Sri Lankan cricketers, his political journey would act as a catalyst for people like Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene to get involved in politics. Cricket has been called a “gentleman’s game.” Whilst politics is far from it!.
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Believe me, seeing certain videos, on social media, depicting action, on the dance floor, at some of these entertainment venues, got me wondering whether this Coronavirus pandemic is REAL!
To those having a good time, at these particular venues, and, I guess, the management, as well, what the world is experiencing now doesn’t seem to be their concerned.
Obviously, such irresponsible behaviour could create more problems for those who are battling to halt the spread of Covid-19, and the new viriant of Covid, in our part of the world.
The videos, on display, on social media, show certain venues, packed to capacity – with hardly anyone wearing a mask, and social distancing…only a dream..
How can one think of social distancing while gyrating, on a dance floor, that is over crowded!
If this trend continues, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Coronavirus makes its presence felt…at such venues.
And, then, what happens to the entertainment scene, and those involved in this field, especially the musicians? No work, whatsoever!
Lots of countries have closed nightclubs, and venues, where people gather, in order to curtail the spread of this deadly virus that has already claimed the lives of thousands.
Thailand did it and the country is still having lots of restrictions, where entertainment is concerned, and that is probably the reason why Thailand has been able to control the spread of the Coronavirus.
With a population of over 69 million, they have had (so far), a little over 25,000 cases, and 83 deaths, while we, with a population of around 21 million, have over 80,000 cases, and more than 450 deaths.
I’m not saying we should do away with entertainment – totally – but we need to follow a format, connected with the ‘new normal,’ where masks and social distancing are mandatory requirements at these venues. And, dancing, I believe, should be banned, at least temporarily, as one can’t maintain the required social distance, while on the dance floor, especially after drinks.
Police spokesman DIG Ajith Rohana keeps emphasising, on TV, radio, and in the newspapers, the need to adhere to the health regulations, now in force, and that those who fail to do so would be penalised.
He has also stated that plainclothes officers would move around to apprehend such offenders.
Perhaps, he should instruct his officers to pay surprise visits to some of these entertainment venues.
He would certainly have more than a bus load of offenders to be whisked off for PCR/Rapid Antigen tests!
I need to quote what Dr. H.T. Wickremasinghe said in his article, published in The Island of Tuesday, February 16th, 2021:
“…let me conclude, while emphasising the need to continue our general public health measures, such as wearing masks, social distancing, and avoiding crowded gatherings, to reduce the risk of contact with an infected person.
“There is no science to beat common sense.”
But…do some of our folks have this thing called COMMON SENSE!
