Features
Unjustified hype on coming COVID-19 vaccines
by Dr B. J. C. Perera
Specialist Consultant Paediatrician
Many portals of information of various types of media are agog, enthusiastic and terribly excited with the so-called ‘fantastic news’ of the possibility of the arrival of a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes the disease COVID-19. This little blight of a virus has been responsible for causing a pandemic that has spread through the entire world like an uncontrollable wildfire, practically causing chaos, disorder and bringing untold misery to virtually every nation on our planet. The Homo sapiens have been eagerly waiting and even praying, for something, be it a medicine or a vaccine, which can be used to tame this microorganism. They, the public, are practically wailing for a respite. There is intense expectation that a vaccine, against this bug would be the panacea for all ills of this nasty disease. There are reports of vaccines in the pipeline that are thought to produce intense protection against the disease. If that is the case, it would indeed be like ‘Manna from Heaven’ for suffering humanity.
There is intense expectation among the general public of the entire world and most definitely in the people of this emerald isle as well, that an effective vaccine against COVID-19 is just round the corner and would be available even within one or two months from now. Yet for all that, it is time, and time well spent at that, to somewhat critically examine the realities of the publicity and hype that has been catalysed by these reports. The general populace is of course totally justified in their expectations following these promulgations from a variety of sources. However, is it really the truth and nothing but the truth? Or is it somewhat far from the real and genuine truth?
Many claims have been made, at least by two of the purported manufacturers of vaccines that their trial vaccines are kind of around 95 per cent effective. These claims seem to be based on provisional and interim results of all phases of animal and human
clinical trials, announced grandiosely in the public domain, even before proper completion of Phase 3 Clinical Trials. It is pertinent to remind people that Phase 3 Clinical Trials by sheer definition, should involve tens of thousands of human volunteers. By virtue of the lack of completeness of Phase 3 Clinical Trials, none of these claims have been substantiated through publication in reputed Scientific Journals. That really means that there has not been any intense and rigorous scientific scrutiny and peer-review of the results that have been claimed. What we have today are outwardly impressive and dazzlingly attractive statements made by the manufacturers of these vaccines, whose claims have not been
validated and accepted by a discerning scientific community.
So far, no vaccin e against COVID-19 has been registered under any internationally recognized regulatory authority, or for that matter, even the World Health Organisation (WHO). True enough, the WHO has been examining the feasibility of securing an effective vaccine, its provision to the entire world and the tremendously complicated logistics of its distribution. However, that is really in anticipation of the arrival of a scientifically effective and safe vaccine. It is of course a very wise course of action to follow. If and when such a vaccine arrives, we should not be caught napping.
At least one manufacturer of a vaccine, that has claimed around 95 per cent effectiveness, has suggested that their vaccine would be available for the general public by the first half of 2021, which is just next year and perhaps just a few months from now on. Even then, are we likely to get it in Sri Lanka? Even if we manage to get it, is it for everybody in the country?
It is on record that millions and even billions of doses of the vaccine have already been contracted for and even paid for by some of the countries of the developed Western world. It will probably become a despicable tragedy of vaccine nationalism. ‘I’ and ‘We’ before all others seem to be the buzz phrase. The administration of one notorious leader from a very affluent Western country has compared the global allocation of vaccines against COVID-19 to oxygen masks dropping inside a depressurizing aircraft. They have so pontificated; “You put on your own first, and then we want to help others as quickly as possible”. Incidentally, Sri Lanka has no such contracts with the manufacturers of these vaccines. As these vaccines have not completed safety studies and as no recognized regulatory body has registered them, Sri Lanka is not in a position to make upfront payment and reservations for them either, even if we can garner the money in the face of an economic downfall caused by the virus itself.
At the time of writing of this article in the evening of 23rd November 2020, it was reported in the media that the G-20 Summit declared that their members would take all necessary steps to ensure equal and equitable distribution of a COVID vaccine to all countries of Mother Earth. To some in the know-how, this may definitely appear to be wishful thinking. Some of these very same countries that made this pledge are the same worthies who, not all that long ago and in the face of global shortages, hoarded supplies of respirators, surgical masks, and gloves for their own hospital workers’ use. Overall, more than 70 countries plus the European Union imposed export controls on local supplies of personal protective equipment, ventilators, or medicines during the first four months of the pandemic. That group also includes most of the countries where potential Covid-19 vaccines are likely to be manufactured. In fact it is well recorded that such hoarding of vital equipment, medicines and vaccines is not new. A case in point is that of a vaccine that was developed in just seven months for the 2009 pandemic of the influenza A virus H1N1, also known as swine flu. That contagion killed as many as 284,000 people globally. But wealthy countries bought up virtually all the supplies of the vaccine. After the World Health Organization appealed and intervened, several of these very same countries agreed to share just 10 per cent of their vaccines with poorer countries. However, the caveat of that ‘magnanimous’ gesture was the stipulation that they would do so only after determining that their remaining supplies would be sufficient to meet their domestic needs. As for the future behaviour patterns of these very same countries regarding a COVID vaccine, your guess is as good as mine. If history is anything worthwhile to go by, they would get up to their tricks, once again.
We have an organisation, The Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Forum of Sri Lanka, which was established over a decade ago. Its objectives are to educate healthcare workers and the public regarding vaccines and vaccination and to have a dialogue with the Ministry of Health on vaccine related matters. It consists of, among others, immunologists, microbiologists, paediatricians, community physicians and family physicians, who practice vaccination and/or have an interest in vaccines. In a recent communiqué, published in The Island Newspaper on 24th November 2020, they have decreed that the only way that Sri Lanka would get the COVID vaccine would be through COVAX, the initiative of the Global Alliance on Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI), WHO and others. COVAX pledges to give all low and middle income countries equitable access to vaccines. The vaccines will be made available to priority groups. These include healthcare and social care workers, elderly, and persons with chronic non-communicable diseases. However, the most likely chances are that WHO/COVAX would be able to provide some vaccine doses to Sri Lanka only towards the end of 2021. WHO/COVAX has pledged that they would reserve a supply of vaccines necessary for only about 20% of our total population, and Sri Lanka will have to pay for them. They have also indicated that they do not wish to buy vaccines that exceed a cost of 20 US dollars per dose for any country. Apart from anything else, what the reaction of the general public would be to a scenario where only 20 per cent of the population is provided with a vaccine that is claimed to protect against a potentially fatal infection, is indeed mind-boggling. It would not be a surprise at all if the populace decides to get on to the roads in protest. There might even be combative riots.
In a truly scientific sense, the COVID vaccine research studies that have been carried out so far, apart from the claims of around 95 per cent efficacy, have not given us reliable information as to how long the immunity would last, how it might wane over time, the degree of protection in different age groups, whether yearly vaccination like the influenza vaccine would be necessary, whether the effectiveness would be just to prevent symptomatic disease rather than preventing infection by the virus, the absolutely essential logistics of transport of the vaccines, possibilities of major adverse effects that may come on after a protracted period of time, the manufacturing capabilities of the providers and the actual cost of bulk purchases of these vaccines. These are just a few among several other hitherto unanswered questions. In particular, we have no information about the use of the vaccine together with or without physical distancing, hand washing and mask wearing. Would the usage of even an effective vaccine contribute to our getting on with life as it was in the Pre-COVID era? Would it allow us to abandon all the measures advocated by health professionals as proven preventive strategies? These seem to be queries that need to be addressed most urgently and ever so decisively, well before a vaccine is released for general usage.
We need to face the spectre of stark reality in the face of many unknowns in this novel virus infection. There are many significant questions and very few answers. Real and rigorous scholarly science dictates that these have to be firmly and truthfully dealt with before we can claim that we would be able to defeat this marauding virus by using a vaccine. Scientifically unsubstantiated sensational proclamations that trigger public hysteria and the vision of a bright light at the end of the tunnel, are certainly not of the essence, and are very definitely not in the dominion of the desperate need of the hour.
In such a scenario, the general public should consider these contemplations ever so carefully and, of course, sanity should prevail. For at least the time being, it is vitally essential to implement mechanisms to educate the public on getting vulnerable persons to hospital early for management of complications of COVID-19 and to prevent unnecessary deaths. As so eloquently expounded by The Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Forum of Sri Lanka, it cannot be stressed too strongly that it is absolutely essential and undoubtedly crucial to continue vigorously with the public health recommendations on wearing face masks, physical distancing, hand washing and related mechanisms, which have stood the acid test of time, even from the era of the Spanish Flu of 1918.
There is a recent movement known as ‘BLACK LIVES MATTER’ in the Western world. It has taken those countries by storm to protest against injustices to people whose skin colour is black. The Westerners sometimes label South Asians as ‘Brown Sahibs’ because our skin colour is more akin to brown than to real black. In case there comes a time when this world has a safe and effective vaccine against COVID-19, all we can tell the foreign powers who control such a vaccine is that ‘BROWN LIVES MATTER TOO’.
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There’s an ill more dangerous and pervasive than the Coronavirus that’s currently sweeping Sri Lanka. That is the fear to express one’s convictions. Across the public sector of the country in particular many persons holding high office are stringently regulating and controlling the voices of their consciences and this bodes ill for all and the country.
The corrupting impact of fear was discussed in this column a couple of weeks ago when dealing with the military coup in Myanmar. It stands to the enduring credit of ousted Myanmarese Head of Government Aung San Suu Kyi that she, perhaps for the first time in the history of modern political thought, singled out fear, and not power, as the principal cause of corruption within the individual; powerful or otherwise.
To be sure, power corrupts but the corrupting impact of fear is graver and more devastating. For instance, the fear in a person holding ministerial office or in a senior public sector official, that he would lose position and power as a result of speaking out his convictions and sincere beliefs on matters of the first importance, would lead to a country’s ills going unaddressed and uncorrected.
Besides, the individual concerned would be devaluing himself in the eyes of all irrevocably and revealing himself to be a person who would be willing to compromise his moral integrity for petty worldly gain or a ‘mess of pottage’. This happens all the while in Lankan public life. Some of those who have wielded and are wielding immense power in Sri Lanka leave very much to be desired from these standards.
It could be said that fear has prevented Sri Lanka from growing in every vital respect over the decades and has earned for itself the notoriety of being a directionless country.
All these ills and more are contained in the current controversy in Sri Lanka over the disposal of the bodies of Covid victims, for example. The Sri Lankan polity has no choice but to abide by scientific advice on this question. Since authorities of the standing of even the WHO have declared that the burial of the bodies of those dying of Covid could not prove to be injurious to the wider public, the Sri Lankan health authorities could go ahead and sanction the burying of the bodies concerned. What’s preventing the local authorities from taking this course since they claim to be on the side of science? Who or what are they fearing? This is the issue that’s crying out to be probed and answered.
Considering the need for absolute truthfulness and honesty on the part of all relevant persons and quarters in matters such as these, the latter have no choice but to resign from their positions if they are prevented from following the dictates of their consciences. If they are firmly convinced that burials could bring no harm, they are obliged to take up the position that burials should be allowed.
If any ‘higher authority’ is preventing them from allowing burials, our ministers and officials are conscience-bound to renounce their positions in protest, rather than behave compromisingly and engage in ‘double think’ and ‘double talk’. By adopting the latter course they are helping none but keeping the country in a state of chronic uncertainty, which is a handy recipe for social instabiliy and division.
In the Sri Lankan context, the failure on the part of the quarters that matter to follow scientific advice on the burials question could result in the aggravation of Islamophobia, or hatred of the practitioners of Islam, in the country. Sri Lanka could do without this latter phobia and hatred on account of its implications for national stability and development. The 30 year war against separatist forces was all about the prevention by military means of ‘nation-breaking’. The disastrous results for Sri Lanka from this war are continuing to weigh it down and are part of the international offensive against Sri Lanka in the UNHCR.
However, Islamophobia is an almost world wide phenomenon. It was greatly strengthened during Donald Trump’s presidential tenure in the US. While in office Trump resorted to the divisive ruling strategy of quite a few populist authoritarian rulers of the South. Essentially, the manoeuvre is to divide and rule by pandering to the racial prejudices of majority communities.
It has happened continually in Sri Lanka. In the initial post-independence years and for several decades after, it was a case of some populist politicians of the South whipping-up anti-Tamil sentiments. Some Tamil politicians did likewise in respect of the majority community. No doubt, both such quarters have done Sri Lanka immeasurable harm. By failing to follow scientific advice on the burial question and by not doing what is right, Sri Lanka’s current authorities are opening themselves to the charge that they are pandering to religious extremists among the majority community.
The murderous, destructive course of action adopted by some extremist sections among Muslim communities world wide, including of course Sri Lanka, has not earned the condemnation it deserves from moderate Muslims who make-up the preponderant majority in the Muslim community. It is up to moderate opinion in the latter collectivity to come out more strongly and persuasively against religious extremists in their midst. It will prove to have a cementing and unifying impact among communities.
It is not sufficiently appreciated by governments in the global South in particular that by voicing for religious and racial unity and by working consistently towards it, they would be strengthening democratic development, which is an essential condition for a country’s growth in all senses.
A ‘divided house’ is doomed to fall; this is the lesson of history. ‘National security’ cannot be had without human security and peaceful living among communities is central to the latter. There cannot be any ‘double talk’ or ‘politically correct’ opinions on this question. Truth and falsehood are the only valid categories of thought and speech.
Those in authority everywhere claiming to be democratic need to adopt a scientific outlook on this issue as well. Studies conducted on plural societies in South Asia, for example, reveal that the promotion of friendly, cordial ties among communities invariably brings about healing among estranged groups and produces social peace. This is the truth that is waiting to be acted upon.
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By Sanjeewa Jayaweera
It was on 3rd January 1972 that our family arrived in Karachi from Moscow. Our departure from Moscow had been delayed for a few weeks due to the military confrontation between Pakistan and India. It ended on 16th December 1971. After that, international flights were not permitted for some time.
The contrast between Moscow and Karachi was unbelievable. First and foremost, Moscow’s temperature was near minus 40 degrees centigrade, while in Karachi, it was sunny and a warm 28 degrees centigrade. However, what struck us most was the extreme warmth with which the airport authorities greeted our family. As my father was a diplomat, we were quickly ushered to the airport’s VIP Lounge. We were in transit on our way to Rawalpindi, the airport serving the capital of Islamabad.
We quickly realized that the word “we are from Sri Lanka” opened all doors just as saying “open sesame” gained entry to Aladdin’s cave! The broad smile, extreme courtesy, and genuine warmth we received from the Pakistani people were unbelievable.
This was all to do with Mrs Sirima Bandaranaike’s decision to allow Pakistani aircraft to land in Colombo to refuel on the way to Dhaka in East Pakistan during the military confrontation between Pakistan and India. It was a brave decision by Mrs Bandaranaike (Mrs B), and the successive governments and Sri Lanka people are still enjoying the fruits of it. Pakistan has been a steadfast and loyal supporter of our country. They have come to our assistance time and again in times of great need when many have turned their back on us. They have indeed been an “all-weather” friend of our country.
Getting back to 1972, I was an early beneficiary of Pakistani people’s love for Sri Lankans. I failed the entrance exam to gain entry to the only English medium school in Islamabad! However, when I met the Principal, along with my father, he said, “Sanjeewa, although you failed the entrance exam, I will this time make an exception as Sri Lankans are our dear friends.” After that, the joke around the family dinner table was that I owed my education in Pakistan to Mrs B!
At school, my brother and I were extended a warm welcome and always greeted “our good friends from Sri Lanka.” I felt when playing cricket for our college; our runs were cheered more loudly than of others.
One particular incident that I remember well was when the Embassy received a telex from the Foreign inistry. It requested that our High Commissioner seek an immediate meeting with the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr Zulifikar Ali Bhutto (ZB), and convey a message from Mrs B. The message requested that an urgent shipment of rice be dispatched to Sri Lanka as there would be an imminent rice shortage. As the Ambassador was not in the station, the responsibility devolved on my father.
It usually takes about a week or more to get an audience with the Prime Minister (PM) of a foreign country due to their busy schedule. However, given the urgency, my father spoke to the Foreign Ministry’s Permanent Sectary, who fortunately was our neighbour and sought an urgent appointment. My father received a call from the PM’s secretary around 10 P.M asking him to come over to the PM’s residence. My father met ZB around midnight. ZB was about to retire to bed and, as such, was in his pyjamas and gown enjoying a cigar! He had greeted my father and had asked, “Mr Jayaweera, what can we do for great friend Madam Bandaranaike?. My father conveyed the message from Colombo and quietly mentioned that there would be riots in the country if there is no rice!
ZB had immediately got the Food Commissioner of Pakistan on the line and said, “I want a shipload of rice to be in Colombo within the next 72 hours!” The Food Commissioner reverted within a few minutes, saying that nothing was available and the last export shipment had left the port only a few hours ago to another country. ZB had instructed to turn the ship around and send it to Colombo. This despite protests from the Food Commissioner about terms and conditions of the Letter of Credit prohibiting non-delivery. Sri Lanka got its delivery of rice!
The next was the visit of Mrs B to Pakistan. On arrival in Rawalpindi airport, she was given a hero’s welcome, which Pakistan had previously only offered to President Gaddafi of Libya, who financially backed Pakistan with his oil money. That day, I missed school and accompanied my parents to the airport. On our way, we witnessed thousands of people had gathered by the roadside to welcome Mrs B.
When we walked to the airport’s tarmac, thousands of people were standing in temporary stands waving Sri Lanka and Pakistan flags and chanting “Sri Lanka Pakistan Zindabad.” The noise emanating from the crowd was as loud and passionate as the cheering that the Pakistani cricket team received during a test match. It was electric!
I believe she was only the second head of state given the privilege of addressing both assemblies of Parliament. The other being Gaddafi. There was genuine affection from Mrs B amongst the people of Pakistan.
I always remember the indefatigable efforts of Mr Abdul Haffez Kardar, a cabinet minister and the President of the Pakistan Cricket Board. From around 1973 onwards, he passionately championed Sri Lanka’s cause to be admitted as a full member of the International Cricket Council (ICC) and granted test status. Every year, he would propose at the ICC’s annual meeting, but England and Australia’s veto kept us out until 1981.
I always felt that our Cricket Board made a mistake by not inviting Pakistan to play our inaugural test match. We should have appreciated Mr Kardar and Pakistan’s efforts. In 1974 the Pakistan board invited our team for a tour involving three test matches and a few first-class games. Most of those who played in our first test match was part of that tour, and no doubt gained significant exposure playing against a highly talented Pakistani team.
Several Pakistani greats were part of the Pakistan and India team that played a match soon after the Central Bank bomb in Colombo to prove that it was safe to play cricket in Colombo. It was a magnificent gesture by both Pakistan and India. Our greatest cricket triumph was in Pakistan when we won the World Cup in 1996. I am sure the players and those who watched the match on TV will remember the passionate support our team received that night from the Pakistani crowd. It was like playing at home!
I also recall reading about how the Pakistani government air freighted several Multi Barrell artillery guns and ammunition to Sri Lanka when the A rmy camp in Jaffna was under severe threat from the LTTE. This was even more important than the shipload of rice that ZB sent. This was crucial as most other countries refused to sell arms to our country during the war.
Time and again, Pakistan has steadfastly supported our country’s cause at the UNHCR. No doubt this year, too, their diplomats will work tirelessly to assist our country.
We extend a warm welcome to Mr Imran Khan, the Prime Minister of Pakistan. He is a truly inspirational individual who was undoubtedly an excellent cricketer. Since retirement from cricket, he has decided to get involved in politics, and after several years of patiently building up his support base, he won the last parliamentary elections. I hope that just as much as he galvanized Sri Lankan cricketers, his political journey would act as a catalyst for people like Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene to get involved in politics. Cricket has been called a “gentleman’s game.” Whilst politics is far from it!.
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Believe me, seeing certain videos, on social media, depicting action, on the dance floor, at some of these entertainment venues, got me wondering whether this Coronavirus pandemic is REAL!
To those having a good time, at these particular venues, and, I guess, the management, as well, what the world is experiencing now doesn’t seem to be their concerned.
Obviously, such irresponsible behaviour could create more problems for those who are battling to halt the spread of Covid-19, and the new viriant of Covid, in our part of the world.
The videos, on display, on social media, show certain venues, packed to capacity – with hardly anyone wearing a mask, and social distancing…only a dream..
How can one think of social distancing while gyrating, on a dance floor, that is over crowded!
If this trend continues, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Coronavirus makes its presence felt…at such venues.
And, then, what happens to the entertainment scene, and those involved in this field, especially the musicians? No work, whatsoever!
Lots of countries have closed nightclubs, and venues, where people gather, in order to curtail the spread of this deadly virus that has already claimed the lives of thousands.
Thailand did it and the country is still having lots of restrictions, where entertainment is concerned, and that is probably the reason why Thailand has been able to control the spread of the Coronavirus.
With a population of over 69 million, they have had (so far), a little over 25,000 cases, and 83 deaths, while we, with a population of around 21 million, have over 80,000 cases, and more than 450 deaths.
I’m not saying we should do away with entertainment – totally – but we need to follow a format, connected with the ‘new normal,’ where masks and social distancing are mandatory requirements at these venues. And, dancing, I believe, should be banned, at least temporarily, as one can’t maintain the required social distance, while on the dance floor, especially after drinks.
Police spokesman DIG Ajith Rohana keeps emphasising, on TV, radio, and in the newspapers, the need to adhere to the health regulations, now in force, and that those who fail to do so would be penalised.
He has also stated that plainclothes officers would move around to apprehend such offenders.
Perhaps, he should instruct his officers to pay surprise visits to some of these entertainment venues.
He would certainly have more than a bus load of offenders to be whisked off for PCR/Rapid Antigen tests!
I need to quote what Dr. H.T. Wickremasinghe said in his article, published in The Island of Tuesday, February 16th, 2021:
“…let me conclude, while emphasising the need to continue our general public health measures, such as wearing masks, social distancing, and avoiding crowded gatherings, to reduce the risk of contact with an infected person.
“There is no science to beat common sense.”
But…do some of our folks have this thing called COMMON SENSE!
